United States presidential election in North Carolina, 2004

United States presidential election in North Carolina, 2004
North Carolina
November 2, 2004
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 15 0
Popular vote 1,961,166 1,525,849
Percentage 56.02% 43.58%

County Results
  Kerry—60-70%
  Kerry—50-60%
  Kerry—<50%
  Bush—<50%
  Bush—50-60%
  Bush—60-70%
  Bush—70-80%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in North Carolina took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 15 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

North Carolina was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 12.4% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a red state. NC was the home state of John Edwards, Democratic nominee for vice-president, who was then representing the state in the United States Senate. This was not enough for Democrats to break Republican success in this state since the 1976 presidential election of Jimmy Carter.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Likely Republican
  2. Associated Press: Leans Bush
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Leans Republican
  5. Newsweek: Leans Bush
  6. New York Times: Solid Bush
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
  8. Research 2000: Leans Bush
  9. Washington Post: Bush
  10. Washington Times: Solid Bush
  11. Zogby International: Bush
  12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll. The final 3 poll average showed Bush leading 52% to 44%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $4,465,160.[3] Kerry raised $2,049,794.[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited the state during the fall campaign.[5][6]

Analysis

John Edwards failed to make his home state competitive in the general election. The main reason why is that Bush's approval rating was consistently above 50%. Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign, says the findings indicate that the Tar Heel state remains safely Republican in the presidential election.[7] Polls showed Kerry had a strong 44% of voters in NC, but Bush consistently polled between 49%–54% and his approval ratings remained in the lower 50% range.[8][9] In the end, Edwards didn't even have any effect on North Carolina's results, as they were identical to the 2000 results.

Bush won a majority of the 100 counties and congressional districts. The only region in the state that Kerry dominated in was the Northeast part of the state, the location of North Carolina's 1st congressional district. The only significant improvement Kerry–Edwards made on Al Gore in 2000 was winning heavy populated Mecklenburg County.

Results

United States presidential election in North Carolina, 2004
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush Richard Cheney 1,961,166 56.02% 15
Democratic John Kerry John Edwards 1,525,849 43.58% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna 11,731 0.34% 0
Totals - 100% 15
Voter turnout (Voting Age population) 55.4%

Results breakdown

By county

County Kerry Votes Bush Votes Others Votes
Alamance38.2%20,68661.5%33,3020.3%187
Alexander29.6%4,61870.1%10,9280.3%54
Alleghany39.8%1,92259.7%2,8830.5%22
Anson58.7%5,41341.1%3,7960.2%16
Ashe37.9%4,47761.7%7,2920.5%54
Avery24.0%1,80575.5%5,6780.5%41
Beaufort36.0%7,02563.7%12,4320.3%65
Bertie61.5%4,93838.1%3,0570.5%37
Bladen49.6%6,10950.1%6,1740.2%30
Brunswick39.2%14,90360.4%22,9250.4%149
Buncombe49.4%51,86850.0%52,4910.6%654
Burke38.1%11,72861.5%18,9220.4%112
Cabarrus32.6%19,80367.0%40,7800.4%241
Caldwell31.9%9,99967.6%21,1860.5%163
Camden35.0%1,33964.8%2,4800.3%11
Carteret30.2%7,73269.3%17,7160.5%127
Caswell48.1%4,53951.6%4,8680.3%30
Catawba32.1%18,85867.5%39,6020.4%228
Chatham49.8%12,89749.7%12,8920.5%133
Cherokee32.5%3,63567.1%7,5170.4%47
Chowan44.7%2,40655.1%2,9670.2%13
Clay33.5%1,62865.9%3,2090.6%29
Cleveland38.3%14,21561.4%22,7500.3%114
Columbus48.8%10,34350.8%10,7730.4%75
Craven37.1%14,01962.4%23,5750.4%162
Cumberland48.1%45,78851.6%49,1390.3%299
Currituck32.4%2,90967.0%6,0130.6%54
Dare39.5%6,13660.1%9,3450.4%67
Davidson28.9%17,19170.7%42,0750.4%230
Davie25.4%4,23374.2%12,3720.4%75
Duplin41.7%6,92358.0%9,6110.3%49
Durham68.0%74,52431.6%34,6140.5%513
Edgecombe61.1%12,87738.7%8,1630.2%39
Forsyth45.5%63,34054.1%75,2940.4%491
Franklin44.4%9,28655.2%11,5400.4%92
Gaston31.8%20,25467.8%43,2520.4%249
Gates52.3%2,12147.5%1,9240.2%8
Graham31.9%1,27267.5%2,6930.6%22
Granville48.7%9,05751.0%9,4910.3%53
Greene41.2%2,66558.7%3,8000.1%7
Guilford50.2%100,04249.3%98,2540.5%1,018
Halifax58.7%11,52841.2%8,0880.2%31
Harnett35.5%11,56364.2%20,9220.3%86
Haywood43.3%11,23756.1%14,5450.6%150
Henderson34.7%15,00364.8%28,0250.5%206
Hertford63.2%5,14136.2%2,9420.6%49
Hoke52.3%5,79447.4%5,2570.3%37
Hyde45.7%1,04853.9%1,2350.4%10
Iredell31.7%18,06567.9%38,6750.4%233
Jackson47.5%6,73751.9%7,3510.6%86
Johnston31.8%17,26667.9%36,9030.3%188
Jones41.9%1,89357.8%2,6070.3%13
Lee39.2%7,65760.6%11,8340.3%52
Lenoir44.0%10,20755.8%12,9390.1%33
Lincoln31.9%9,43467.8%20,0520.3%93
McDowell33.3%5,33066.2%10,5900.5%82
Macon36.5%5,48962.9%9,4480.6%87
Madison44.7%4,23454.7%5,1750.6%54
Martin48.8%5,10251.0%5,3340.2%16
Mecklenburg51.6%166,82848.0%155,0840.4%1,190
Mitchell26.7%2,08072.9%5,6860.4%32
Montgomery42.8%4,31357.0%5,7450.2%22
Moore35.3%13,55564.4%24,7140.3%113
Nash41.7%15,69358.1%21,9020.2%78
New Hanover43.8%35,57255.8%45,3510.4%324
Northampton63.7%5,58436.2%3,1760.1%10
Onslow30.2%11,25069.5%25,8900.4%137
Orange66.9%42,91032.4%20,7710.7%472
Pamlico38.7%2,33560.9%3,6790.4%24
Pasquotank51.2%6,98448.4%6,6090.4%55
Pender41.0%6,99958.7%10,0370.3%49
Perquimans39.8%1,97159.8%2,9650.4%22
Person40.7%6,19859.0%8,9730.3%43
Pitt46.5%24,92453.3%28,5900.2%129
Polk42.0%3,78757.0%5,1401.0%94
Randolph25.5%12,96674.2%37,7710.3%173
Richmond51.9%8,38347.7%7,7090.3%53
Robeson52.8%17,86847.0%15,9090.3%94
Rockingham38.6%14,43061.1%22,8400.3%118
Rowan32.3%16,73567.3%34,9150.4%217
Rutherford33.2%8,18466.3%16,3430.5%131
Sampson43.3%9,64956.5%12,6000.2%39
Scotland55.3%6,38644.5%5,1410.2%20
Stanly29.9%7,65069.7%17,8140.3%89
Stokes29.7%5,76770.0%13,5830.3%64
Surry31.9%8,30467.7%17,5870.4%101
Swain48.0%2,41951.4%2,5930.6%32
Transylvania39.1%6,09760.2%9,3860.7%105
Tyrrell46.0%73153.8%8550.3%4
Union29.5%17,97470.2%42,8200.3%207
Vance55.9%8,76243.9%6,8840.2%31
Wake48.7%169,90950.8%177,3240.5%1,611
Warren64.4%5,17135.4%2,8400.2%16
Washington54.3%2,96945.4%2,4840.3%18
Watauga46.7%11,23252.6%12,6590.7%159
Wayne37.6%15,07662.1%24,8830.2%87
Wilkes29.0%7,86270.7%19,1970.3%95
Wilson46.5%14,20653.3%16,2640.2%65
Yadkin22.5%3,45177.2%11,8160.3%46
Yancey47.0%4,43452.4%4,9400.6%57

By congressional district

Bush won 9 of 13 congressional districts.[10]

District Bush Kerry
1st 42% 57% G.K. Butterfield
2nd 54% 46% Bob Etheridge
3rd 68% 32% Walter B. Jones
4th 44% 55% David Price
5th 66% 33% Richard Burr
Virginia Foxx
6th 69% 30% Howard Coble
7th 56% 44% Mike McIntyre
8th 54% 45% Robin Hayes
9th 63% 36% Sue Wilkins Myrick
10th 67% 33% Cass Ballenger
Patrick T. McHenry
11th 57% 43% Charles H. Taylor
12th 37% 63% Mel Watt
13th 47% 52% Brad Miller

Electors

Technically the voters of NC cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. NC is allocated 15 electors because it has 13 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 15 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 15 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All were pledged to and voted for Bush/Cheney:

  1. Joseph W. Powell
  2. Ann Sullivan
  3. William B. Carraway
  4. Sandra Carter
  5. William H. Trotter
  6. Thomas D. Luckadoo
  7. Judy Keener
  8. Marcia M. Spiegel
  9. Dewitt Rhoades
  10. Davey G. Williamson
  11. Theresa Esposito
  12. Elizabeth Kelly
  13. Larry W. Potts
  14. Joe Morgan
  15. Robert Rector

References

  1. ↑ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW[]
  2. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=37
  3. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
  4. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
  5. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/showdown/IA/
  6. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/
  7. ↑ http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-07-12-poll-election_x.htm
  8. ↑ http://www.nationaljournal.com/members/polltrack/2004/races/whitehouse/04wh2004gen_state.htm#AMERICAN%20RESEARCH%20GROUP-NC
  9. ↑ http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/nc_polls.html
  10. ↑ http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/

See also

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