United States presidential election in Florida, 2004

United States presidential election in Florida
Florida
November 2, 2004
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 27 0
Popular vote 3,964,522 3,583,544
Percentage 52.10% 47.09%

County Results
  Kerry—60-70%
  Kerry—50-60%
  Kerry—<50%
  Bush—<50%
  Bush—50-60%
  Bush—60-70%
  Bush—70-80%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Florida took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 27 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Florida was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 5.0% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a swing state. Once again Florida was under the national spotlight because of the facts that it had a high number of electoral votes (27) and the memory of the controversy surrounding the 2000 Florida vote still fresh in the minds of voters. The turnout was also much higher, going from an estimated 6 million voters to over 7.5 million voters showing up to vote.[1]

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Lean Republican
  2. Associated Press: Toss Up
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Toss Up
  5. Newsweek: Toss Up
  6. New York Times: Toss Up
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Toss Up
  8. Research 2000: Toss Up
  9. Washington Post: Battleground
  10. Washington Times: Battleground
  11. Zogby International: Tied
  12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Throughout the general election, candidates exchanged narrow leads in the state. The final 3 poll averaged showed Bush leading with 49% to Kerry's 47%.[3]

Fundraising

Bush raised $16,956,510.[4] Kerry raised $7,285,151.[5]

Advertising and visits

This state was heavily targeted as a swing state. Over the course of the election, Bush visited the state 15 times to Kerry's 18 times. Also, both candidates spent heavily on television advertisements, spending an estimated $3 million each week.[6]

General election

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 John
Kerry (D)		 George W.
Bush (R)		 Ralph
Nader (I)		 Other Undecided
Quinnipiac October 27–31, 2004 1,098 ± 3.3 43% 51% 1% 0% 4%
Quinnipiac October 22–26, 2004 944 ± 3.2 46% 49% 1% 0% 4%
Quinnipiac October 15–19, 2004 808 ± 3.5 47% 48% 1% 0% 4%
Quinnipiac October 1–5, 2004 717 ± 3.7 44% 51% 0% 0% 5%
Quinnipiac September 18–21, 2004 819 ± 3.4 41% 49% 5% 0% 5%
Quinnipiac August 5–10, 2004 1,094 ± 3.0 47% 41% 4% 0% 7%
Quinnipiac June 23–27, 2004 1,209 ± 2.8 43% 43% 5% 1% 9%

Analysis

During the 2004 U.S. presidential election, numerous allegations of irregularities were made concerning the voting process in Florida. These allegations included missing and uncounted votes, machine malfunction, and a lack of correlation between the vote count and exit polling.

In the prior election, Ralph Nader obtained over 2% of the vote, thus Bush won with less than 50% of the vote, making his approval rating and his brother's approval ratings the deciding factor of the state. Polls throughout the campaign indicated that Florida was too close to call, prompting concerns about a repeat of the 2000 fiasco. However, the high popularity of George W. Bush's brother, Republican Governor Jeb Bush, contributed to a relatively comfortable victory for Bush, by a margin of 5% over his Democratic rival, John Kerry.

While the South Florida metropolitan area mostly voted for Kerry, the other parts of the state mainly supported Bush, being culturally closer to the rest of the southern United States than to Miami, home to large Hispanic and Jewish populations, as well as retirees and transplants from the largely liberal Northeastern United States.

Key to Bush's victory was increased turnout in Republican areas. Bush's margin of victory in several counties topped 70%, particularly in the Florida Panhandle. Bush also won a significant number of heavily populated and fast-growing areas including the Jacksonville area, the entire Tampa Bay area, Southwest Florida, suburban Orlando, the Space Coast, and Ocala.

Results

United States presidential election in Florida, 2004
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush (Inc.) Dick Cheney 3,964,522 52.1% 27
Democratic John Kerry John Edwards 3,583,544 47.1% 0
Reform Ralph Nader Peter Camejo 32,971 0.4% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna 11,996 0.2% 0
Constitution Michael Peroutka Chuck Baldwin 6,626 0.1% 0
Green David Cobb Patricia LaMarche 3,917 0.1% 0
Socialist Walt Brown Mary Alice Herbert 3,502 0.1% 0
Socialist Workers Roger Calero Margaret Trowe 2,732 0.0% 0
Totals 7,609,810 100.00% 27
Voter turnout (Voting Age) 74.0%

Results breakdown

By county

County Kerry% Kerry# Bush% Bush# Others% Others#
Alachua 56.1% 62,504 42.9% 47,762 1.0% 1,062
Baker 21.9% 2,180 77.7% 7,738 0.4% 37
Bay 28.1% 21,068 71.2% 53,404 0.7% 552
Bradford 29.9% 3,244 69.6% 7,557 0.5% 54
Brevard 41.6% 110,309 57.7% 153,068 0.8% 2,085
Broward 64.2% 453,873 34.6% 244,674 1.2% 8,325
Calhoun 35.5% 2,116 63.4% 3,782 1.1% 65
Charlotte 42.9% 34,256 55.7% 44,428 1.4% 1,102
Citrus 42.1% 29,277 56.9% 39,500 1.0% 690
Clay 23.3% 18,971 76.2% 62,078 0.5% 446
Collier 34.1% 43,892 65.0% 83,631 0.9% 1,160
Columbia 32.1% 8,031 67.1% 16,758 0.8% 202
DeSoto 41.1% 3,913 58.1% 5,524 0.8% 73
Dixie 30.4% 1,960 68.8% 4,434 0.7% 48
Duval 41.6% 158,610 57.8% 220,190 0.6% 2,261
Escambia 33.7% 48,329 65.3% 93,566 1.0% 1,383
Flagler 48.3% 18,578 51.0% 19,633 0.7% 269
Franklin 40.5% 2,401 58.5% 3,472 1.0% 58
Gadsden 69.7% 14,629 29.8% 6,253 0.5% 102
Gilchrist 28.8% 2,017 70.4% 4,936 0.9% 62
Glades 41.0% 1,718 58.3% 2,443 0.6% 27
Gulf 33.1% 2,407 66.0% 4,805 0.9% 65
Hamilton 44.5% 2,260 55.0% 2,792 0.5% 27
Hardee 29.6% 2,149 69.7% 5,049 0.7% 51
Hendry 40.5% 3,960 58.9% 5,757 0.6% 58
Hernando 46.2% 37,187 52.9% 42,635 0.9% 725
Highlands 37.0% 15,347 62.4% 25,878 0.7% 271
Hillsborough 46.2% 214,132 53.0% 245,576 0.8% 3,514
Holmes 21.8% 1,810 77.3% 6,412 0.9% 78
Indian River 39.0% 23,956 60.1% 36,938 0.8% 520
Jackson 38.1% 7,555 61.2% 12,122 0.7% 130
Jefferson 55.3% 4,135 44.1% 3,298 0.6% 45
Lafayette 25.4% 845 74.0% 2,460 0.6% 20
Lake 38.9% 48,221 60.0% 74,389 1.1% 1,340
Lee 39.0% 93,860 59.9% 144,176 1.1% 2,631
Leon 61.5% 83,873 37.8% 51,615 0.7% 891
Levy 36.5% 6,074 62.5% 10,410 1.0% 168
Liberty 35.4% 1,070 63.8% 1,927 0.8% 24
Madison 48.8% 4,050 50.5% 4,191 0.8% 63
Manatee 42.7% 61,262 56.6% 81,318 0.7% 1,041
Marion 41.0% 57,271 58.2% 81,283 0.8% 1,123
Martin 41.7% 30,208 57.1% 41,362 1.2% 883
Miami-Dade 52.9% 409,732 46.6% 361,095 0.5% 3,899
Monroe 49.7% 19,654 49.2% 19,467 1.0% 414
Nassau 26.2% 8,573 72.6% 23,783 1.2% 387
Okaloosa 21.6% 19,368 77.6% 69,693 0.8% 695
Okeechobee 42.3% 5,153 57.2% 6,978 0.5% 59
Orange 49.8% 193,354 49.6% 192,539 0.6% 2,151
Osceola 47.0% 38,633 52.5% 43,117 0.6% 454
Palm Beach 60.4% 328,687 39.1% 212,688 0.6% 3,247
Pasco 44.4% 84,749 54.1% 103,230 1.5% 2,937
Pinellas 49.5% 225,460 49.6% 225,686 0.9% 4,211
Polk 40.8% 86,009 58.6% 123,559 0.6% 1,262
Putnam 40.1% 12,412 59.1% 18,311 0.8% 250
Saint Johns 30.6% 26,399 68.6% 59,196 0.8% 695
Saint Lucie 51.8% 51,835 47.6% 47,592 0.6% 636
Santa Rosa 21.8% 14,659 77.3% 52,059 0.9% 589
Sarasota 45.2% 88,442 53.5% 104,692 1.3% 2,518
Seminole 41.3% 76,971 58.1% 108,172 0.6% 1,052
Sumter 36.4% 11,584 62.2% 19,800 1.4% 458
Suwanee 28.6% 4,522 70.6% 11,153 0.8% 127
Taylor 35.5% 3,049 63.7% 5,467 0.8% 65
Union 26.8% 1,251 72.6% 3,396 0.6% 28
Volusia 50.5% 115,519 48.9% 111,924 0.7% 1,496
Wakulla 41.6% 4,896 57.6% 6,777 0.8% 90
Walton 25.9% 6,213 73.2% 17,555 0.9% 208
Washington 28.1% 2,912 71.1% 7,369 0.8% 85

By congressional district

Bush won 18 of 25 congressional districts.[7]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 72% 28% Jeff Miller
2nd 54% 46% Allen Boyd
3rd 35% 65% Corrine Brown
4th 69% 31% Ander Crenshaw
5th 58% 41% Ginny Brown-Waite
6th 61% 39% Cliff Stearns
7th 57% 43% John Mica
8th 55% 45% Ric Keller
9th 57% 43% Michael Bilirakis
10th 51% 49% Bill Young
11th 41% 58% Jim Davis
12th 58% 42% Adam Putnam
13th 56% 44% Katherine Harris
14th 62% 38% Porter Goss
Connie Mack IV
15th 57% 43% Dave Weldon
16th 54% 46% Mark Foley
17th 17% 83% Kendrick Meek
18th 54% 46% Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
19th 34% 66% Robert Wexler
20th 36% 64% Peter Deutsch
Debbie Wasserman Schultz
21st 57% 43% Lincoln Diaz-Balart
22nd 48% 52% E. Clay Shaw Jr.
23rd 24% 76% Alcee Hastings
24th 55% 45% Tom Feeney
25th 56% 44% Mario Diaz-Balart

Electors

Technically the voters of Florida cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Florida is allocated 27 electors because it has 25 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 27 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 27 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from Florida. All were pledged to and voted for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.[8]

  1. Al Austin
  2. Allan Bense
  3. Sally Bradshaw
  4. Al Cardenas
  5. Jennifer Carroll
  6. Armando Codina
  7. Sharon Day
  8. Maria de la Milera
  9. Jim Dozier
  10. David Griffin
  11. Fran Hancock
  12. Cynthia Handley
  13. William Harrison
  14. Al Hoffman
  15. Bill Jordan
  16. Tom Lee
  17. Randall McElheney
  18. Jeanne McIntosh
  19. Nancy Mihm
  20. Gary Morse
  21. Marilyn Paul
  22. Tom Petway
  23. Sergio Pino
  24. John Thrasher
  25. Janet Westling
  26. Robert Woody
  27. Zach Zachariah

References

  1. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
  2. ↑ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW[]
  3. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=12
  4. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
  5. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
  6. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/showdown/FL/
  7. ↑ http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
  8. ↑ http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/2004_certificates/

See also

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