United States Senate election in North Carolina, 2008
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Elections in North Carolina | ||||||
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State legislature
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The 2008 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held on November 4, 2008. The Senate election coincided with the presidential, U.S. House elections, gubernatorial, Council of State, and statewide judicial elections. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Elizabeth Dole ran for re-election to a second term, but was defeated by Democrat Kay Hagan.[1] The November general election was the first time in North Carolina history, and only the eighth time in U.S. history, that the two major-party candidates for a U.S. Senate seat were both women. In addition, Hagan became the first Democrat to win this seat since it was won by the Republicans in 1972, and the first woman to defeat an incumbent woman in a Senate election.
Democratic primary
Candidates
- Kay Hagan, State Senator
- Duskin Lassiter, trucker
- Jim Neal, businessman
- Howard Staley, doctor
- Marcus Williams, attorney
Campaign
Hagan, initially an unknown politician, decided to challenge incumbent Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole.[2]
National Democrats at first encouraged incumbent Governor Mike Easley to make the race. A late October 2007 Rasmussen Report poll showed Easley defeating Dole 50% to 42%.[3][4] Easley declined to run, as did Congressman Brad Miller, who expressed interest in early 2007.[5][6] Former Governor Jim Hunt also declined to compete against Dole.[7][8]
Neal earned the endorsement of the Black Political Caucus of Charlotte-Mecklenburg. He also was endorsed by Blue America PAC, eQualityGiving, the Independent Weekly and YES ! Weekly.[9]
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ± | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Kay Hagan | 801,920 | 60.1 | ||
Democratic | Jim Neal | 239,623 | 18.0 | ||
Democratic | Marcus W. Williams | 170,970 | 12.8 | ||
Democratic | Duskin Lassiter | 62,136 | 4.6 | ||
Democratic | Howard Staley | 60,403 | 4.5 | ||
Turnout | 1,335,052 | ||||
Republican primary
Candidates
- Elizabeth Dole, incumbent U.S. Senator
- Pete DiLauro
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ± | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Elizabeth Dole (Incumbent) | 460,665 | 90.0 | ||
Republican | Pete DiLauro | 51,406 | 10.0 | ||
Turnout | 512,071 | ||||
General election
Candidates
- Chris Cole (L), perennial candidate
- Elizabeth Dole (R), incumbent U.S. Senator
- Kay Hagan (D), State Senator
Campaign
Dole was initially a heavy favorite for reelection, especially after several potential top-tier challengers such as Congressman Brad Miller, Governor Mike Easley and former Governor Jim Hunt all declined to compete against Dole.[7][8] Ultimately, Kay Hagan, a state senator from Greensboro, won the Democratic primary election and became Dole's general election opponent. Reports late in the campaign suggested that Dole, once considered a safe bet for reelection, suffered from Barack Obama's decision to aggressively contest North Carolina in the presidential election.[11]
Hagan was initially given little chance against Dole, but Hagan was helped by independent 527 groups lobbying/advertising against incumbent Dole [8] The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee expended more money in North Carolina than in any other state during the 2008 election season.[8] However, Dole benefited from more out-of-state funding overall than Hagan.[12]
In late October, Dole released a controversial television ad attacking Hagan for reportedly taking donations from individuals involved in the Godless Americans PAC, a group which advocates for the rights of people who do not believe in God. The ad also included a female voice saying, "There is no God."[13][14] The Dole campaign said the ad correctly shows who Hagan will associate with in order to raise campaign funds, and on November 1, Bob Dole also defended it, asserting that "it never questions her faith," and that "the issue is why she was there. There's no question about her faith. I think it's [the ad's] fair game."[15]
Hagan, who is a member of the Presbyterian Church and a former Sunday school teacher,[14] condemned the ad as "fabricated and pathetic," and, according to Hagan's campaign website, a cease-and-desist letter was "hand-delivered to Dole's Raleigh office, faxed to her Salisbury office and sent to her home at the Watergate in Washington, DC."[16] Hagan also filed a lawsuit in Wake County Superior Court accusing Dole of defamation and libel.[17][18]
The ad has met exceptionally strong criticism from the public as well as many local and several national media outlets. CNN's Campbell Brown said about the ad: "[A]mid all the attack ads on the airwaves competing to out-ugly one another, we think we've found a winner."[19] The ad has been described as "ridiculously outrageous,"[20] "indecent,"[21] a "gross misrepresentation,"[22] "worse than dishonest"[23] and "beyond the bounds of acceptable political disagreement,"[23] among other harsh criticism.[24] Another ad issued by the Dole campaign in mid-October 2008 was described by The Fayetteville Observer as "[setting] the low mark in negative political campaigning."[25] The media reported, that within 48 hours of the first ad Hagan received over 3,600 contributions, including major donors as well as individual support from a range of atheists, agnostics and followers of other religious beliefs who felt they were being attacked by Dole.[26] Following the second ad Hagan's lead doubled according to some polls.[26]
Predictions
In June 2008, Senator John Ensign of Nevada, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, considered North Carolina to be one of the top ten most competitive Senate races of the year.[27] Later, CQ Politics rated this race as 'Leans Democratic'.[28] The Cook Political Report called it a 'Toss-Up'.[29] The Rothenberg Political Report considered it a 'Lean Takeover'.[30]
Polling
![](../I/m/Hagen_at_Obama_rally.jpg)
Polls released October 28 showed Dole and Hagan within the statistical margin of error (3% apart) and Dole garnering 4% of the vote.[2]
Poll Source | Dates administered | Kay Hagan (D) | Elizabeth Dole (R) |
---|---|---|---|
Survey USA | November 2, 2008 | 50% | 43% |
Rasmussen Reports | October 29, 2008 | 52% | 46% |
Survey USA | October 20, 2008 | 46% | 45% |
Rasmussen Reports | October 8, 2008 | 49% | 44% |
Survey USA | October 5–6, 2008 | 43% | 44% |
Public Policy Polling | September 28–29, 2008 | 46% | 38% |
Rasmussen Reports | September 23, 2008 | 48% | 45% |
Public Policy Polling | September 19, 2008 | 46% | 41% |
Rasmussen Reports | September 18, 2008 | 51% | 45% |
Daily Kos/Research 2000 | September 10, 2008 | 42% | 48% |
Survey USA | September 8, 2008 | 40% | 48% |
Democracy Corps | August 26, 2008 | 50% | 45% |
Public Policy Polling | August 23, 2008 | 42% | 39% |
Insider Advantage | August 19, 2008 | 40% | 40% |
Research 2000/Daily Kos | July 28-30, 2008 | 42% | 50% |
Public Policy Polling | July 23-27, 2008 | 40% | 49% |
Rasmussen Reports | July 15, 2008 | 43% | 54% |
Survey USA | July 14, 2008 | 42% | 54% |
The Tarrance Group | July 9, 2008 | 36% | 51% |
Civitas Institute/ Tel Opinion Research |
June 11-13, 2008 | 38% | 48% |
Rasmussen Reports | June 10, 2008 | 39% | 53% |
Anzalone Liszt Research | June 4, 2008 | 44% | 48% |
Public Policy Polling | May 28-29, 2008 | 39% | 47% |
Survey USA | May 17-19, 2008 | 46% | 50% |
Civitas Institute/ Tel Opinion Research |
May 14-17, 2008 | 43% | 45% |
Public Policy Polling | May 8-9, 2008 | 43% | 48% |
Rasmussen Reports | May 8, 2008 | 48% | 47% |
Research 2000/Daily Kos | April 28-30, 2008 | 41% | 48% |
Rasmussen Reports | April 10, 2008 | 39% | 52% |
Public Policy Polling | February 18, 2008 | 33% | 50% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ± | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Kay Hagan | 2,249,311 | 52.65 | +7.7 | |
Republican | Elizabeth Dole (Incumbent) | 1,887,510 | 44.18 | -9.4 | |
Libertarian | Chris Cole | 133,430 | 3.12 | +1.6 | |
Other | Write-Ins | 1,719 | 0.0 | 0 | |
Majority | 361,801 | ||||
Turnout | 4,271,970 | ||||
Democratic gain from Republican | Swing | ||||
Analysis
In the 2008 election, Dole lost by a wider-than-expected margin, taking only 44 percent of the vote to Hagan's 53 percent – the widest margin for a Senate race in North Carolina in 30 years, and the largest margin of defeat for an incumbent Senator in the 2008 cycle. It has been speculated that the outcry over the "Godless" ads contributed to Dole's loss.[32] Hagan trounced Dole in the state's five largest counties – Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Forsyth and Durham. Hagan also dominated most of the eastern portion of the state, which had been the backbone of Helms' past Senate victories. While Dole dominated the Charlotte suburbs and most of the heavily Republican Foothills region, it was not enough to save her seat.
References
- ↑ Libertarian Party of NC press release: Libertarians File List of 2008 Candidates Archived September 21, 2008, at the Wayback Machine.
- 1 2 "Perdue tries to whistle up a Mayberry miracle". Raleigh News and Observer. 2008-10-28. Retrieved 2008-10-28.
- ↑ http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_senate_elections/election_2008_north_carolina_senate_race
- ↑ Dan Kane; Rob Christensen; J. Andrew Curliss (2007-01-25). "Poll puts Easley over Dole". The News & Observer. Archived from the original on September 18, 2008. Retrieved 2007-02-05.
- ↑ newsobserver.com | Miller looking at Senate race
- ↑ Draft dodger? | newsobserver.com projects
- 1 2 2008 Election Challenge.
- 1 2 3 4 "Is the Southern Strategy Dead?". American Prospect. 2008-10-24. Retrieved 2008-10-26.
- ↑ "Profile of U.S. Senate Candidate Jim Neal". News & Observer. 2007-10-04. Retrieved 2008-03-18.
- 1 2 NC State Board of Elections website
- ↑ "Scrambling the red states". The Economist. 2008-10-23. Retrieved 2008-10-23.
- ↑ “Elizabeth Dole: Campaign Finance/Money - Summary.” Center for Responsive Politics. http://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/summary.php?type=C&cid=N00008071&newMem=N&cycle=
- ↑ Kraushaar, Josh. Hagan's campaign says the ad sought to put inflammatory words in their candidate's mouth; The Dole campaign says the ad correctly shows who Hagan will associate with in order to raise campaign funds.Dole still keeping the faith. The Politico. October 29, 2008.
- 1 2 Brown, Campbell. Commentary: Mudslinging to get elected. CNN.com. October 29, 2008.
- ↑ Bob Dole Defends "Godless" TV Ad. Small Business VoIP. November 1, 2008.
- ↑ KayHagan.com. Kay on Dole Ad Attacking Her Christian Faith: A Fabricated, Pathetic Ad. October 30, 2008.
- ↑ Dole Sued for 'Godless' Attack Ad, ABC News. October 30, 2008.
- ↑ Dole challenger irate over suggestion she is 'godless'. CNN.com. October 30, 2008.
- ↑ Brown, Campbell. Commentary: Mudslinging to get elected. CNN.com. October 29, 2008.
- ↑ Frank, James. Dole 'Godless' ad shows progress, sort of. Chicago Tribune. October 31, 2008.
- ↑ Dole's desperate turn to Big Lie advertising. The Charlotte Observer. Oct. 30, 2008.
- ↑ As election nears, negative ads a distraction. Asheville Citizen-Times. October 30, 2008.
- 1 2 Editorial: Dole’s attack on Hagan’s faith drives heated campaign lower. Greensboro News & Record. October 30, 2008.
- ↑ ELIZABETH DOLE ATTACKS KAY HAGAN´S CHRISTIAN FAITH. AmericanChronicle.com. November 02, 2008.
- ↑ Dole’s new ads set the low mark in negative political campaigning. The Fayetteville Observer. October 15, 2008.
- 1 2 "Dole's mistake: 'Godless' ad drove donors, voters to Hagan". Miami Herald. November 11, 2008. Retrieved 2008-11-18.
- ↑ Kate Phillips, G.O.P. Leader Maps Senate Elections The New York Times, June 13, 2008
- ↑ Race Ratings Chart: Senate Archived October 28, 2010, at the Wayback Machine. CQ Politics
- ↑ 2008 Senate Race Ratings The Cook Political Report, October 23, 2008
- ↑ 2008 Senate Ratings The Rothenberg Political Report, November 2, 2008
- ↑ NC State Board of Elections website
- ↑ Barbara Barrett (2008-11-05). "N.C. voters deny Dole, elect Hagan to U.S. Senate". Miami Herald. Retrieved 2008-11-05.
External links
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Wikinews has related news: Kay Hagan sues Elizabeth Dole over "Godless" television advertisement |
- North Carolina State Board of Elections
- U.S. Congress candidates for North Carolina at Project Vote Smart
- North Carolina, U.S. Senate from CQ Politics
- North Carolina U.S. Senate from OurCampaigns.com
- Campaign contributions from OpenSecrets.org
- Dole vs Hagan graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
- Official campaign websites
- Elizabeth Dole, Republican nominee
- Kay Hagan, Democratic nominee
- Jim Neal, Democratic candidate