Valencian parliamentary election, 2015

Valencian parliamentary election, 2015
Valencian Community
24 May 2015
All 99 seats in the Valencian Courts
50 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered 3,609,265 Increase1.7%
Turnout 2,510,459 (69.6%)
Decrease0.6 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Alberto Fabra Ximo Puig Mònica Oltra
Party PPCV PSPV–PSOE Compromís
Leader since 28 July 2011 31 March 2012 31 January 2015
Leader's seat Valencia Castellón Valencia
Last election 55 seats, 49.4% 33 seats, 28.0% 6 seats, 7.2%
Seats won 31 23 19
Seat change Decrease24 Decrease10 Increase13
Popular vote 658,612 509,098 456,823
Percentage 26.6% 20.6% 18.5%
Swing Decrease22.8 pp Decrease7.4 pp Increase11.3 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Carolina Punset Antonio Montiel Ignacio Blanco
Party C's Podemos AC
Leader since 2 February 2015 14 February 2015 8 November 2014
Leader's seat Valencia Valencia Valencia (lost)
Last election Did not contest Did not contest 5 seats, 7.6%[lower-alpha 1]
Seats won 13 13 0
Seat change Increase13 Increase13 Decrease5
Popular vote 309,121 282,389 106,917
Percentage 12.5% 11.4% 4.3%
Swing New party New party Decrease3.3 pp
President before election

Alberto Fabra
PP

 Elected President

Ximo Puig
PSPV–PSOE

The 2015 Valencian parliamentary election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th democratically-elected Valencian Courts, the regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of Valencia. All 99 seats in the Courts were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in 12 other autonomous communities and municipal elections in all of Spain.

While incumbent President Alberto Fabra's People's Party (PPCV) remained as the most voted party, it lost 24 seats and 22 percentage points to its 2011 result, and the absolute majority it had held since 1999. This result was attributed to the party's management of the economic crisis, as well as the various corruption scandals that affected the PP throughout the entire 2011–2015 period, some of which were unveiled just weeks before the election. The Socialist Party of the Valencian Country (PSPV–PSOE) came second, with 23 seats, but lost 10 to the already negative result of 2011 and obtaining the worst result of its history.

Three other parties achieved representation, of which two were new: Compromís, with 19 seats, Podemos and C's. EUPV, the main party in a coalition of other forces known as Acord Ciutadà (Valencian for "Citizen Agreement"), did not reach the 5% required threshold to achieve representation and therefore lost all of its seats in the Courts. Turnout was, at 69.6%, the lowest since 1999. Alberto Fabra announced he would retire from his party's leadership in the region after a PSPV–Compromís coalition with Podemos' support expelled the PP from the regional government after 20 years in power. As a result, Ximo Puig from the PSPV–PSOE was elected as new regional President.

Electoral system

The number of seats in the Valencian Courts was set to a fixed-number of 99. All Courts members were elected in 3 multi-member districts, corresponding to the Valencian Community's three provinces, using the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation system. Each district was entitled to an initial minimum of 20 seats, with the remaining 39 seats allocated among the three provinces in proportion to their populations, on the required condition that the number of inhabitants per seat in each district did not exceed 3 times those of any other. For the 2015 election, seats were distributed as follows: Alicante (35), Castellon (24) and Valencia (40).

Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. Only lists polling above 5% of valid votes in all of the community (which include blank ballots—for none of the above) were entitled to enter the seat distribution. This meant that in the case a list polled above 5% in one or more of the districts but below 5% in the community totals, it would remain outside of the seat apportionment.[1]

Background

The 2011 regional election had resulted in the People's Party increasing its absolute majority despite losing votes, thanks to the collapse of the Socialist Party of the Valencian Country vote, which scored its worst historical result up to that point. However, after 16 years of uninterrupted rule, corruption scandals involving the PP began to erupt. Two months after the election, President Francisco Camps resigned because of his alleged implication in the Gürtel case,[2] being replaced as President of the Generalitat Valenciana by Alberto Fabra.[3] The following years saw the unveiling of a series of corruption scandals that rocked the PPCV, involving party MPs,[4] mayors,[5] local councillors,[6] regional councillors,[7] Courts' speakers[8] and former regional president José Luis Olivas.[9] At one point, up to 20% of the party MPs in the Valencian Courts (11 out of 55) were charged in different corruption cases; a joke popularized at the time said that they would become the third political force in the Valencian Courts, only behind PP and PSOE, if they were to form their own parliamentary group.[10] The regional party leadership also had to cope with accusations of illegal financing[11] as well as possible embezzlement in the additional costs incurred in the Formula 1 project and Pope Benedict XVI's 2006 visit to Valencia.[12][13]

At the same time, the regional government had to deal with the effects of the ongoing financial crisis. Despite the community's decision to ask for a bailout from the central government headed by Mariano Rajoy in July 2012,[14] its economic situation remained severe. Fabra's government had to close down RTVV, the regional public television broadcasting channel, because of financing issues; a decision which was met with widespread protest.[15][16]

The 2014 European Parliament election resulted in enormous losses for the People's Party, which, in the largest Valencian cities, lost almost half of its votes in percentage terms compared to the previous elections. Both the economic crisis and corruption helped hasten the party's decline, which had already seen support drop in opinion polls since 2011. The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party found itself unable to gain any of the PP's lost support and lost votes too, to the benefit of until then minority parties such as United Left, Union, Progress and Democracy, Citizens or the newly created Podemos party.[17]

Opinion polls

Vote estimations

Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

Color key:

  Exit poll

Polling Firm/Link Last Date
of Polling		 Margin
of Error		 Sample
Size		 Lead
Regional Election May 24, 2015 26.6 20.6 18.4 4.3 1.2 12.5 11.4 6.0
Emer May 24, 2015 31.2 19.4 15.5 3.8 12.5 11.5 ±0.4 pp 15,864 11.8
NC Report May 17, 2015 32.6 20.9 8.7 5.4 1.5 15.7 10.2 ±3.5 pp 800 11.7
Sigma Dos May 12, 2015 31.2 21.2 9.5 4.9 15.4 13.0 ±2.8 pp 1,200 10.0
Encuestamos May 12, 2015 26.0 21.1 11.5 5.1 1.1 14.8 16.9 ±2.3 pp 1,800 4.9
Inmerco May 9, 2015 27.2 20.0 10.3 5.5 1.0 18.6 14.9 7.2
Invest Group May 8, 2015 24.7 19.3 13.2 5.8 17.6 13.5 ±2.4 pp 1,600 5.4
Sigma Dos May 7, 2015 30.5 20.7 9.2 5.2 16.8 12.2 ±2.3 pp 1,800 9.8
GAD3 May 5, 2015 29.7 19.5 11.6 4.2 0.8 16.2 12.2 ±3.2 pp 1,000 10.2
Sigma Dos April 24, 2015 29.7 18.4 12.2 3.6 1.0 16.1 14.8 ±2.9 pp 1,200 11.3
My Word April 21, 2015 26.5 19.7 10.8 5.3 1.0 18.1 13.8 ±2.9 pp 1,218 6.8
CIS April 19, 2015 30.4 19.9 8.1 4.3 1.5 15.3 16.5 ±2.3 pp 1,955 10.5
Metroscopia April 15, 2015 24.5 21.0 10.9 5.9 17.7 16.9 ±2.6 pp 1,500 3.5
Sigma Dos March 28, 2015 28.8 19.5 8.4 6.8 15.2 17.3 ±2.9 pp 1,200 9.3
NC Report March 26, 2015 35.2 20.4 8.2 5.1 2.1 13.4 11.2 ±3.5 pp 800 14.8
Sigma Dos March 17, 2015 30.6 19.4 10.2 5.2 12.9 14.3 ±2.9 pp 1,200 11.2
ODEC March 15, 2015 27.3 23.5 12.3 4.8 2.2 11.2 11.7 ±2.2 pp 2,056 3.8
ODEC February 21, 2015 27.9 23.2 12.0 5.6 4.6 4.6 12.9 4.7
PP February 8, 2015 30 17 10 5 5 9 20 10
Inmerco October 16, 2014 28.2 19.4 8.8 5.1 5.9 17.6 ±5 pp 400 8.8
Sigma Dos October 14, 2014 36.4 20.0 10.8 6.2 3.8 16.3 16.4
PP September 26, 2014 35.5 21.0 8.5 5.7 5.1 15.0 14.5
Metroscopia September 26, 2014 29.9 25.8 13.0 8.4 3.0 15.3 ±2.6 pp 1,500 4.1
PP September 7, 2014 28 21 7 6 18 7
EP Election May 25, 2014 29.0 21.6 8.0 10.6 8.5 2.9 8.2 7.4
ODEC April 2, 2014 29.8 27.4 14.6 10.2 5.4 ±2.9 pp 1,201 2.4
La Vanguardia March 30, 2014 36.5 26.6 11.2 9.9 5.0 9.9
My Word March 12, 2014 29.7 21.2 15.0 12.2 13.3 ±3.5 pp 800 8.5
PP February 12, 2014 26.4 28.6 15.6 13.1 6.8 2.2
ODEC December 19, 2013 28.3 23.5 13.0 10.8 6.7 ±2.8 pp 1,200 4.8
NC Report November 12, 2013 38.6 20.6 18.0
ODEC November 7, 2013 37.2 24.2 12.1 10.5 8.6 ±2.8 pp 1,200 13.0
Metroscopia October 1, 2013 33.9 23.6 13.3 11.7 6.9 ±3.2 pp 1,000 10.3
ODEC July 29, 2013 30.9 27.9 12.5 12.1 6.2 3.0
PP July 16, 2013 31.5 27.5 4.0
NC Report[lower-alpha 2] May 10, 2013 41.5 20.3 ±5.4 pp 350 21.2
PP April 8, 2013 30.0 25.0 13.5 15.0 7.5 5.0
Compromís March 29, 2013 37.4 22.9 14.8 10.8 6.9 ±3.5 pp 800 14.5
ODEC November 15, 2012 37.1 28.2 10.7 9.2 5.1 ±1.7 pp 3,520 8.9
Celeste-Tel October 31, 2012 46.6 19.2 12.8 10.1 6.6 ±2.9 pp 1,200 27.4
Metroscopia October 5, 2012 34.2 19.9 13.6 11.5 7.1 ±3.2 pp 1,000 14.3
General Election November 20, 2011 53.3 26.8 4.8 6.5 5.6 26.5
Regional Election May 22, 2011 49.4 28.0 7.2 5.9 2.5 21.4

Parliamentary seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 50 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Valencian Courts.

Color key:

  Exit poll

50 seats needed for majority
Polling Firm/Link Last Date
of Polling
Regional Election May 24, 2015 31 23 19 0 0 13 13
Emer May 24, 2015 35/37 22/23 15/16 0 0 13/14 11
GAD3 May 24, 2015 33/35 22/24 13/15 0/3 0 13/15 12/13
NC Report May 17, 2015 36/38 23/25 8/9 4/5 0 14/15 11/12
GAD3 May 17, 2015 33/34 20/21 12/13 0 0 18/19 12/13
Sigma Dos May 12, 2015 34/36 24/25 8/9 0/5 0 16 12/13
Encuestamos May 12, 2015 27/30 24/27 9/11 0/3 0 14/16 17/19
Inmerco May 9, 2015 26/30 20/22 9/12 0/6 0 17/25 14/16
Invest Group May 8, 2015 27 20 13 6 0 19 14
Sigma Dos May 7, 2015 33/34 23/24 8/9 4/5 0 17 11/13
GAD3 May 5, 2015 32/33 20/21 12/13 0 0 19/20 13/14
Sigma Dos April 24, 2015 33 19/22 12/14 0 0 17 15/16
My Word April 21, 2015 28/31 22/26 8/11 3/5 0 17/19 13/15
CIS April 19, 2015 33/35 22/23 7/8 0 0 16 19
Metroscopia April 15, 2015 28 23 9 5 0 17 17
Sigma Dos March 28, 2015 30/32 20/21 8 6 0 15/16 17/19
NC Report March 26, 2015 40/42 23/25 7/8 3/4 0 12/13 11/12
Sigma Dos March 17, 2015 33/36 21/22 9/10 4 0 14 15/16
ODEC March 15, 2015 34 26/28 13 0 0 12/14 12
PP March 5, 2015 37 24 6 0 0 12 20
ODEC February 21, 2015 35 29 13 6 0 0 16
PP January 4, 2015 42 20 8/11 0 0 5/7 20
Llorente & Cuenca October 31, 2014 38/40 26/28 6/10 6/7 5/6 0 15/20
Sigma Dos October 14, 2014 41/43 22/23 10 5/6 0 0 18/20
CIS October 13, 2014 42 25 8 4 0 0 20
PP September 26, 2014 41/42 24/25 8 6 5/6 0 13
Metroscopia September 26, 2014 32 29 14 7 0 0 17
EP Election May 25, 2014 (36) (27) (8) (11) (9) (0) (8)
ODEC April 2, 2014 32/34 33/35 16/17 10/11 4/5
La Vanguardia March 30, 2014 42 31 12 9 5
PP March 5, 2014 30/32 28/29 14/16 12/13 10/11
PP February 12, 2014 29/30 31/32 16/17 13/14 7
ODEC December 19, 2013 34/36 29/31 14/16 11 7
NC Report November 12, 2013 39/40 22/23 12/13 14/15 8/9
ODEC November 7, 2013 40 28 13 11 7
Metroscopia October 1, 2013 41 27 13 13 5
Compromís June 13, 2013 38/39 22 18 13 7/8
NC Report May 10, 2013 44/45 22/23 12/13 10/11 8/9
Compromís March 29, 2013 37/39 22/24 13/15 12/14 7/9
Celeste-Tel November 30, 2012 50/51 19/21 12 15 3
Celeste-Tel October 31, 2012 50/51 20/21 13 10 5
Metroscopia October 5, 2012 42 25 13 13 6
Celeste-Tel September 30, 2012 49 31 8 6 5
Gen. Election November 20, 2011 (59) (29) (0) (6) (5)
Regional Election May 22, 2011 55 33 6 5 0

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Valencian Courts election results →
Party Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Won +/−
People's Party of the Valencian Community (PPCV) 658,612 26.61 –22.81 31 –24
Socialist Party of the Valencian Country (PSPV–PSOE) 509,098 20.57 –7.47 23 –10
Commitment Coalition (Compromís) 456,823 18.46 +11.27 19 +13
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) 309,121 12.49 New 13 +13
We Can (Podemos/Podem) 282,389 11.41 New 13 +13
Citizen Agreement (EUPV–EV–ERPV–AS:AC)[lower-alpha 1] 106,917 4.32 –3.33 0 –5
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 28,754 1.16 –1.32 0 ±0
Blank ballots 34,083 1.38 –1.10
Total 2,475,258 100.00 99 ±0
Valid votes 2,475,258 98.60 +0.23
Invalid votes 35,201 1.40 –0.23
Votes cast / turnout 2,510,459 69.56 –0.63
Abstentions 1,098,806 30.44 +0.63
Registered voters 3,609,265
Source: Valencian Courts
Vote share
PPCV
  
 26.61%
PSPV–PSOE
  
 20.57%
Compromís
  
 18.46%
C's
  
 12.49%
Podemos/Podem
  
 11.41%
EUPV–EV–ERPV–AS
  
 4.32%
UPyD
  
 1.16%
Others
  
 3.61%
Blank ballots
  
 1.38%
Parliamentary seats
PPCV
  
 31.31%
PSPV–PSOE
  
 23.23%
Compromís
  
 19.19%
C's
  
 13.13%
Podemos/Podem
  
 13.13%

Results by province

Election results by province.

Aftermath

Investiture vote

First round: 25 June 2015
Absolute majority (50/99) required
Candidate: Ximo Puig
Choice Vote
Parties Votes
YesYes PSPV (23), Compromís (19), Podemos (8)
50 / 99
No PP (31), C's (13)
44 / 99
Abstentions Podemos (5)
5 / 99
Source: Historia Electoral

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 Compared to the United Left of the Valencian Country+Greens and Ecopacifists+Republican Left of the Valencian Country results in the 2011 election.
  2. ↑ This survey shows its poll results projected over candidacy votes (that is, votes going for political parties, excluding blank ballots). The vote percentage in the official election is calculated including blank ballots into the estimation. In order to obtain data comparable to both the official results as well as those of other surveys, a rule of three has been applied to the survey projections, with the results of the calculation being shown instead.

References

  1. ↑ "Law 1/1987, of 31 March, Valencian electoral".
  2. ↑ "Francisco Camps resigns" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2011-07-21.
  3. ↑ "Alberto Fabra replaces Camps at the head of the PPCV and the Generalitat" (in Spanish). El País. 2011-07-21.
  4. ↑ "The presence of 20% of accused MPs divides the Valencian PP" (in Spanish). El País. 2013-06-29.
  5. ↑ "Judge charges Castedo again for benefitting the constructor Ortiz" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2014-09-19.
  6. ↑ "The PP has fifty defendants in municipal offices" (in Spanish). El País. 2015-01-10.
  7. ↑ "Valencian councillor resigns after being accused of leaking a secret report" (in Spanish). Cadena SER. 2012-11-30.
  8. ↑ "Juan Cotino, accused for the contracts with Gürtel during the Pope's visit" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2014-11-10.
  9. ↑ "Olivas, imputed for tax fraud in the advising of Vicente Cotino" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2014-06-02.
  10. ↑ "Those charged within the Valencian PP would become the third political force in the Courts" (in Spanish). Hoy. 2013-06-09.
  11. ↑ "The Judge processes 19 people for the illegal financing of the Valencian PP" (in Spanish). El País. 2014-12-16.
  12. ↑ "The corruption in the Valencian PP, from A to Z" (in Spanish). El Diario. 2014-08-11.
  13. ↑ "The Valencian bonfire of PP corruption" (in Spanish). El País. 2014-11-16.
  14. ↑ "The Valencian Community asks for a bailout" (in Spanish). Público. 2012-07-20.
  15. ↑ "Fabra closes down the Valencian television after Justice's overthrowing of the ERE" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2013-11-05.
  16. ↑ "Protests for the closing down of Channel 9 encircle Fabra and isolate the PP" (in Spanish). El Diario. 2013-12-04.
  17. ↑ "The PP vote collapses in the largest cities and gives the key to minority parties" (in Spanish). El País. 2014-05-06.
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