United States Senate election in Missouri, 2016
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The 2016 United States Senate election in Missouri was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Missouri, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries will be held on August 2.
Incumbent Republican Senator Roy Blunt won re-election to a second term in office.[1]
Republican primary
Despite being considered an “establishment” Republican, Blunt is considered to be unlikely to face serious Tea Party opposition because of Blunt's efforts to cultivate relationships with activists in Missouri, his effectiveness at "thread[ing] the needle" by keeping conservative and establishment Republicans fairly satisfied, and the open gubernatorial election, which is attracting the most attention from Republicans.[2]
Candidates
Declared
- Roy Blunt, incumbent Senator[1][3]
- Ryan Luethy
- Bernie Mowinski, retired Army sergeant and perennial candidate[4]
- Kristi Nichols, sales manager, tea party activist and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[4]
Withdrawn
- Christopher Batsche, businessman (running for MO-07)[4][5][6]
Declined
- Todd Akin, former U.S. Representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012[7][8]
- John Brunner, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 (running for Governor)[9]
- John Lamping, former State Senator[10][11]
Endorsements
| Roy Blunt |
|---|
|
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Roy Blunt |
Kristi Nichols |
Bernie Mowinski |
Ryan Luethy |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Post-Dispatch/ Mason-Dixon | July 23–27, 2016 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 66% | 9% | 5% | 1% | 19% |
|
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Roy Blunt | 481,444 | 72.55 | |
| Republican | Kristi Nichols | 134,025 | 20.20 | |
| Republican | Ryan Luethy | 29,328 | 4.42 | |
| Republican | Bernie Mowinski | 18,789 | 2.83 | |
| Total votes | 663,586 | 100 | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Cori Bush, pastor and co-director of the Truth Telling Project[22][23]
- Jason Kander, Secretary of State of Missouri[24][25]
- Robert Mack
- Chief Wana Dubie, marijuana activist[26][27]
Declined
- Jay Nixon, Governor of Missouri[28]
- Mike Sanders, Jackson County Executive, former Jackson County Prosecuting Attorney and former Chairman of the Missouri Democratic Party[29][30]
- Clint Zweifel, State Treasurer of Missouri[31][32]
Endorsements
| Jason Kander |
|---|
|
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jason Kander |
Cori Bush |
Robert Mack |
Chief Wana Dubie |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Post-Dispatch/ Mason-Dixon | July 23–27, 2016 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 67% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 20% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jason Kander | 223,492 | 69.87 | |
| Democratic | Cori Bush | 42,453 | 13.27 | |
| Democratic | Chief Wana Dubie | 30,432 | 9.51 | |
| Democratic | Robert Mack | 23,509 | 7.35 | |
| Total votes | 319,886 | 100 | ||
Third Party and Independent Candidates
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Declared
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Jonathan Dine | 2,002 | 54.90 | |
| Libertarian | Herschel Young | 1,642 | 45.06 | |
| Total votes | 3,644 | 100 | ||
Constitution primary
Candidates
Declared
- Fred Ryman[4]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Constitution | Fred Ryman | 545 | 100 | |
| Total votes | 545 | 100 | ||
Green Party
Candidates
Declared
Write-in
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[56] | Tossup | September 30, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[57] | Tossup | October 10, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[58] | Tossup | October 14, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[59] | Tossup | October 28, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[60] | Tossup | September 23, 2016 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Roy Blunt (R) |
Jason Kander (D) |
Jonathan Dine (L) |
Fred Ryman (C) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,368 | ± 4.6% | 44% | 51% | — | — | — | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 31–November 6, 2016 | 1,119 | ± 4.6% | 43% | 51% | — | — | — | 6% |
| Emerson College | November 4–5, 2016 | 750 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 46% | — | — | 5% | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 28–November 3, 2016 | 879 | ± 4.6% | 45% | 51% | — | — | — | 4% |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | November 1–2, 2016 | 1,036 | ± 3.1% | 47% | 45% | — | — | — | 8% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 27–November 2, 2016 | 774 | ± 4.6% | 45% | 51% | — | — | — | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 31–November 1, 2016 | 1,083 | ± 3.0% | 46% | 44% | — | — | — | 9% |
| Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R) | October 31–November 1, 2016 | 1,722 | ± 2.4% | 48% | 44% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 5% |
| DFM Research | October 27–November 1, 2016 | 508 | ± 4.4% | 41% | 41% | — | — | 9% | 9% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 26–November 1, 2016 | 649 | ± 4.6% | 46% | 50% | — | — | — | 4% |
| Emerson College | October 28–31, 2016 | 650 | ± 3.8% | 45% | 45% | — | — | 6% | 4% |
| Monmouth University | October 28–31, 2016 | 405 | ± 4.9% | 47% | 46% | — | — | 3% | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 671 | ± 4.6% | 45% | 51% | — | — | — | 4% |
| Missouri Scout/BK Strategies (R) | October 27–28, 2016 | 1,698 | ± 2.4% | 47% | 44% | — | 1% | 3% | 5% |
| St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon | October 24–26, 2016 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 46% | — | — | 2% | 5% |
| Emerson College | October 17–19, 2016 | 600 | ± 3.9% | 44% | 44% | — | — | 4% | 8% |
| Google Consumer Surveys | October 12–14, 2016 | 521 | ± 4.2% | 45% | 52% | — | — | — | 3% |
| Monmouth University | October 9–11, 2016 | 406 | ± 4.9% | 46% | 44% | 3% | — | — | 7% |
| Emerson College | September 9–13, 2016 | 600 | ± 3.6% | 40% | 42% | — | — | 10% | 8% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R) | September 1–2, 2016 | 1,275 | ± 3.0% | 47% | 40% | — | — | — | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling | August 26–27, 2016 | 1,055 | ± 3.0% | 47% | 43% | — | — | — | 10% |
| Monmouth University | August 19–22, 2016 | 401 | ± 4.9% | 48% | 43% | 3% | — | — | 7% |
| Remington Research Group (R) | August 5–6, 2016 | 1,280 | ± 3.0% | 47% | 40% | 4% | 2% | — | 7% |
| St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon | July 23–24, 2016 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 43% | — | — | — | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling | July 11–12, 2016 | 959 | ± 3.2% | 41% | 38% | — | — | — | 21% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R) | March 25–26, 2016 | 927 | ± 3.2% | 44% | 37% | — | — | — | 19% |
| DFM Research | March 17–24, 2016 | 674 | ± 3.8% | 49% | 35% | — | — | 2% | 14% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R) | October 30–31, 2015 | 783 | ± 3.5% | 43% | 33% | — | — | — | 23% |
| Public Policy Polling | August 7–9, 2015 | 859 | ± 3.3% | 40% | 35% | — | — | — | 25% |
| Remington Research Group (R) | February 19, 2015 | 957 | ± 3.2% | 49% | 36% | — | — | — | 14% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Roy Blunt | 1,370,240 | 49.34 | -4.89% | |
| Democratic | Jason Kander | 1,283,222 | 46.21 | +5.58% | |
| Libertarian | Jonathan Dine | 67,067 | 2.42 | -0.60% | |
| Green | Johnathan McFarland | 30,413 | 1.10 | N/A | |
| Constitution | Fred Ryman | 25,194 | 0.91 | -1.22% | |
| Write-ins | 891 | 0.03 | N/A | ||
| Majority | 87,018 | 3.13 | |||
| Total votes | 2,777,027 | 100 | |||
| Republican hold | |||||
See also
References
- 1 2 "Ahead of the 2016 curve: Roy Blunt has a fundraiser on election night 2014". The Washington Examiner. November 4, 2014. Retrieved November 13, 2014.
- ↑ Deirdre Shesgreen (February 17, 2015). "Blunt has clear primary path, despite some tea party gripes". Springfield News-Leader. Retrieved February 18, 2015.
- ↑ Levinson, Alexis (January 28, 2015). "Senators Confirm Re-Election Bids for 2016". Roll Call. Retrieved February 17, 2015.
- 1 2 3 4 5 Horvath, Dave (February 23, 2016). "Three file for sheriff's race". The Neosho Daily News. Retrieved February 29, 2016.
- ↑ Hoak, Ashley (October 23, 2015). "Missouri Secretary of State shares plans for 2016 U.S. Senate run". KTVO.com. Retrieved January 10, 2016.
- ↑ Hacker, John (February 29, 2016). "Flanigan joins field for Commissioner". The Carthage Press. Retrieved February 29, 2016.
- ↑ Jim Stinson (July 15, 2014). "Akin won't rule out 2016 run against Blunt". Springfield News-Leader. Retrieved November 13, 2014.
- ↑ Kendall Breitman (February 26, 2015). "Akin: I'm not running for Senate". Politico. Retrieved February 26, 2015.
- ↑ Shesgreen, Deirdre (February 17, 2015). "Blunt has clear primary path, despite some tea party gripes". Springfield News-Leader. Retrieved February 17, 2015.
- ↑ Alex Pappas (November 13, 2014). "These Republican Senators Could Face Conservative Challengers In 2016". The Daily Caller. Retrieved November 17, 2014.
- ↑ "July 2016 Tip Sheet". The Missouri Times. July 15, 2015. Retrieved August 12, 2015.
- ↑ "Invitation to Fund-Raiser for Roy Blunt headlined by George W. Bush". New York Times. June 16, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- ↑ Jeffers, Gromer (October 4, 2016). "Ted Cruz, John Cornyn hosting Dallas fundraiser for U.S. Senate candidates". Dallas News. Retrieved October 7, 2016.
- ↑ Jeffers, Gromer (October 4, 2016). "Ted Cruz, John Cornyn hosting Dallas fundraiser for U.S. Senate candidates". Dallas News. Retrieved October 7, 2016.
- ↑ http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/paul-ryan-senate-campaign-stops-229015
- ↑ "John Bolton endorses Roy Blunt & Chuck Grassley for U.S. Senate". boltonpac.com. May 24, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- ↑ Fiorina, Carly (October 27, 2016). ".@RoyBlunt is the conservative leader Missouri needs. Here's why I'm endorsing him: facebook.com/CarlyFiorina/p...". Twitter. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
- ↑ "Small Business endorses Roy Blunt for Re-election". National Federation of Independent Business. August 22, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- ↑ Raasch, Chuck (August 9, 2016). "Blunt gets NRA Endorsement". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- ↑ "Roy Blunt scores U.S. Chamber endorsement in Senate Race". KCUR. May 2, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- 1 2 3 4 "Missouri Senate Primary Results". Missouri Secretary of State. August 2, 2016. Retrieved November 30, 2016.
- ↑ Rivas, Rebecca (February 11, 2016). "Black Challengers of Democrat incumbents fight with party over access". Retrieved February 16, 2016.
- ↑ "Cori Bush for U.S. Senate". Retrieved February 16, 2016.
- ↑ Kraske, Steve (January 30, 2015). "Secretary of State Kander pondering U.S. Senate run in Missouri". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved January 30, 2015.
- ↑ "PRESS RELEASE: Jason Kander Announces He Will Run for United States Senate". The Missouri Times. February 19, 2015. Retrieved February 19, 2015.
- ↑ http://fox4kc.com/2015/07/16/chief-wana-dubie-announces-bid-for-u-s-senate-from-missouri/
- ↑ "Wana Dubie officially first US Senate candidate from Salem". Retrieved February 25, 2016.
- ↑ Cillizza, Chris (September 19, 2013). "Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon steps forward, but toward what?". The Washington Post. Retrieved April 8, 2014.
- ↑ Faughn, Scott (October 20, 2014). "2016 Outlook". The Missouri Times. Retrieved November 14, 2014.
- ↑ Fox, Jeff (February 27, 2015). "Sanders says he won't run for state office". The Examiner. Retrieved March 1, 2015.
- ↑ Bologna, Giacoma (October 2, 2013). "Show Me Nothing: Missouri Members Entrenched". Roll Call. Retrieved October 2, 2013.
- ↑ "Missouri Treasurer Zweifel won't run for office". Kansas City Star. November 18, 2013. Retrieved November 19, 2013.
- ↑ "MO-Sen: VP Joe Biden goes all in to help Jason Kander (D) to defeat Roy Blunt (R)". Daily Kos. August 16, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- ↑ "Missouri Leaders endorse Jason's campaign for Senate". jasonkander.com. February 19, 2015. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- ↑ "MO-Sen: Al Franken (D. MN) steps up to help Jason Kander (D) to defeat Roy Blunt (R)". Daily Kos. May 4, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- ↑ "MO & FL-Sen: Sen. Martin Heinrich (D. NM) wants to flip these two seats to end the obstruction". Daily Kos. March 23, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- ↑ "Missouri Leaders endorse Jason's campaign for Senate". jasonkander.com. February 19, 2015. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- ↑ "MO-Sen: Harry Reid (D. NV) helps Jason Kander (D) pull an upset victory". Daily Kos. August 1, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- ↑ "MO-Sen: Jon Tester (D. MT) wishes Jason Kander (D) happy birthday by helping him fuel his campaign". Daily Kos. March 4, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- ↑ "MO-Sen: Jason Kander (D) proudly touts having Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) on Team Kander". Daily Kos. June 29, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- ↑ "Missouri Leaders endorse Jason's campaign for Senate". jasonkander.com. February 19, 2015. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- ↑ "Missouri Leaders endorse Jason's campaign for Senate". jasonkander.com. February 19, 2015. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- ↑ "Missouri Leaders endorse Jason's campaign for Senate". jasonkander.com. February 19, 2015. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- ↑ "Daily Kos: Jason Kander - 2016 endorsement". Daily Kos. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- ↑ Blatt, Hannah (May 17, 2016). "LCV Action Fund endorses Jason Kander for U.S. Senate". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- ↑ "Planned Parenthood Action Fund endorses Missouri's Jason Kander in Senate Race". Planned Parenthood Action Fund. August 11, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- ↑ "Sierra Club endorses Jason Kander for U.S. Senate". Sierra Club. August 8, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
- ↑ "Herschel L. Young – Biographical Profile and Positions on the Issues". Vote-MO. Retrieved August 2, 2016.
- ↑ "Herschel Young Candidate for the People". Facebook. Retrieved August 2, 2016.
- ↑ "Johnathan McFarland- Candidate for United States Senator". Missouri Green Party. Retrieved September 1, 2016.
- ↑ "Kander Certifies Green Party for November Ballot". Missouri Secretary of State. Retrieved September 1, 2016.
- ↑ Blatchford, Taylor. "First-time competitor brings passion for race walking, politics to Senior Games". Columbia Missourian. Retrieved June 12, 2016.
- ↑ "A unique campaign". Retrieved 2016-08-31.
- ↑ Dundon, Eric. "Missouri Senate campaign swims against popular political current, but can it have an impact?". Retrieved 2016-08-31.
- ↑ "Lee: No kicking the can". Retrieved 2016-08-31.
- ↑ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for September 30, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 30, 2016.
- ↑ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 10, 2016.
- ↑ "2016 Senate Ratings (October 14, 2016)". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2016.
- ↑ "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
- ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 23, 2016.
- ↑ http://www.sos.mo.gov/enrweb/statewideresults.asp?eid=300
External links
- Official campaign websites
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