Next Catalan parliamentary election

Next Catalan parliamentary election
Catalonia
No later than 11 November 2019
All 135 seats in the Parliament of Catalonia
68 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Carles Puigdemont Inés Arrimadas Oriol Junqueras
Party PDECAT C's ERC
Leader since 10 January 2016 3 July 2015 17 September 2011
Last election 29 seats, 18.5%[lower-alpha 1] 25 seats, 17.9% 20 seats, 12.8%[lower-alpha 1]
Current seats 29 25 20
Seats needed Increase39 Increase43 Increase48
 
Leader Miquel Iceta Ada Colau[lower-alpha 2] Xavier García Albiol
Party PSC CSQP/ECP[lower-alpha 3] PPC
Leader since 19 July 2014 28 October 2015 28 July 2015
Last election 16 seats, 12.7% 11 seats, 8.9%[lower-alpha 4] 11 seats, 8.5%
Current seats 16 11 11
Seats needed Increase52 Increase57 Increase57
Incumbent President

Carles Puigdemont
PDECAT (JxSí)

The next Catalan parliamentary election will be held on or before Monday, 11 November 2019, as provided by the Statute of Autonomy of Catalonia,[1] to elect the 12th Parliament of Catalonia, the regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of Catalonia. All 135 seats in the Parliament will be up for election.

After the 2015 election, pro-Catalan independence parties held a majority in the Parliament, with incumbent President Artur Mas and his Together for Yes (JxSí) coalition requiring the support from the Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP) to get to office. An internal debate within the CUP as to whether invest Mas or reject his election issued, consuming the legal time established for the election of a candidate to the President office, and with JxSí member parties Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC) and Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) rejecting to propose an alternative candidate to Mas.

After the CUP definitely chose on 3 January 2016 to vote against his investiture, Artur Mas announced on 5 January that he would reluctantly sign the election call decree the following Monday for a fresh election to be held on 6 March 2016.[2][3][4] This however did not transpire: a last minute deal was struck between JxSí and the CUP to ensure a separatist government, although without Mas as President.[5]

Electoral system

The 135 members of the Parliament of Catalonia are elected in four multi-member districts, corresponding to Catalonia's four provinces, using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional representation. As Catalonia has not passed its own electoral law, elections are conducted under default rules provided in the Statute of Autonomy and under the Spanish general electoral law (Organic Law 5/1985, of the General Electoral Regime). As a result of the lack of an autonomous electoral law, seats are allocated to districts through specific laws or decrees for each election. The common seat distribution is as follows: Barcelona (85), Girona (17), Lleida (15) and Tarragona (18).

Voting is on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. Only lists polling above 3% of valid votes in each district (which includes blank ballots, which are counted for none of the above) are entitled to seats.[6][7]

Latest possible date

The next Catalan parliamentary election cannot be held later than Monday 11 November 2019. This date is determined as follows:

Law Requirement Comments
Statute: Article 56.1[1] Parliament is composed of a minimum of 100 deputies and a maximum of 150, elected for four years (...). The 2015 election was held on 27 September 2015. Four years after 27 September 2015 is 27 September 2019.
Statute: Article 56.4[1] The President of the Generalitat must call for an election 15 days before the end of the legislature (...) 15 days before 27 September 2019 is 12 September 2019.
Statute: Article 56.4[1] (...) election must take place between 40 and 60 days after the election call. 60 days after 12 September 2019 is 11 November 2019.

Background

The 2015 election resulted in pro-Catalan independence Together for Yes (JxSí) (a coalition comprising the two main centre-right and centre-left Catalan parties at the time, Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC) and Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), together with several minor parties) and Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP) holding a slim majority of seats, despite not securing a majority of votes as was their objective. President Artur Mas' JxSí coalition also fell short of its goal to secure an absolute majority on its own, obtaining 62 seats to the combined 63 of the remaining opposition parties.[8] Thus, Mas found himself dependant on CUP's support for securing his nomination to be re-elected to the office. The CUP, however, found difficulty in supporting Mas, who was viewed has having been tainted by several corruption scandals involving his party, CDC.

Both JxSí and the CUP submitted on 28 October 2015 a parliamentary motion declaring the "beginning of the process towards the independence of Catalonia as a republic",[9][10] a move seen by many as a concession from JxSí to the CUP so that it would support Artur Mas' investiture.[11] This move, however, was met with stiff opposition from all other parties, which regarded it as "risky" and "illegal",[12] and did not succeed in bringing the CUP to terms, which kept refusing to invest Mas as regional premier and advocated for other candidates to be proposed.[13] On 10 November 2015, the first ballot of Artur Mas' investiture vote was held, with 62 voting favourably to Mas' election (only those of JxSí) and 73 against (those from all other parties). The unsuccessful vote set up the start of the legal timespan of two months for election a new President before the Parliament's automatic dissolution and the forced call of a new election.[14] A subsequent second ballot on 12 November also proved inconclusive, and further ballots were suspended until JxSí and the CUP were able to solve the deadlock.[15] Negotiations between JxSí and the CUP then ensued, but without success.

Popular Mayor of Barcelona Ada Colau's personal involvement during the election campaign and Podemos' promise on holding a legal self-determination referendum on Catalonia resulted in a resounding victory for Podemos' brand, En Comú Podem (Catalan for "In Common We Can"), at the regional level in the 2015 Spanish general election held on 20 December. ERC scored a distant second place, while Democracy and Freedom (DL), the coalition formed by Mas' party CDC and replacing the defunct Convergence and Union (CiU), finished fourth.[16][17][18] This was seen as a major setback for the sovereignist cause, as Catalans had massively voted for a political option that supported the celebration of a referendum on the independence issue but that also advocated for Catalonia's permanence within Spain, and was said to motivate the CUP's subsequent definitive denial to re-elect Mas as regional premier.[19] After the general election, JxSí made a last offer to the CUP, which involved a "transitional presidency" formed by four people, which would, nonetheless, be led by Mas.[20]

Following a long process of internal debate to determine whether the party should support Mas' investiture or force the call of a new election, the CUP's assembly held on 27 December 2015 resulted in a draw between both options, with 1,515 out of 3,030 registered party supporters voting for each choice.[21] CUP leaders called on JxSí to come up with an alternative candidate for premier, something which the latter's member parties, however, refused.[22] Finally, the CUP's leadership narrowly decided in a vote held on 3 January to definitely oppose Mas' investiture. JxSí members accused the CUP of torpedoing the independentist cause and refused to withdraw Mas' candidacy on the grounds that "there is no alternative".[23] CUP's leader and candidate for the 2015 Catalan election, Antonio Baños, resigned the following day, claiming that he did not share his party's decision as he perceived that it weakened the independence process.[24][25] ERC leader Oriol Junqueras called on 4 January for both CDC and the CUP to keep negotiating to prevent a new election that he saw as "negative for Catalonia", but avoided to note on whether he thought Artur Mas should step aside or not.[26] Artur Mas stated on 5 January that JxSí was not making any new proposals, pleaded guilt on "having trusted the CUP" and announced that he would sign the election call decree on 11 January for a fresh election to be held on 6 March.[4] Then-acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy acknowledged the same day that he saw "no alternative to a repeat of elections in Catalonia" after the fracture of the pro-independence alliance.[27] This however did not transpire: a last minute deal was struck between JxSí and the CUP to ensure a separatist government, although without Mas as President.[5]

Parties and leaders

Party/alliance Leader
Catalan European Democratic Party (PDECAT) Carles Puigdemont
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) Inés Arrimadas
Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) Oriol Junqueras
Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC) Miquel Iceta
Catalonia Yes We Can/In Common We Can (CSQP/ECP) Ada Colau
People's Party of Catalonia (PPC) Xavier García Albiol
Popular Unity Candidates (CUP) Anna Gabriel
Democrats of Catalonia (DC) Núria de Gispert
Left Movement (MES) Alfons Palacios

Opinion polls

Party vote

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

w/o JxSí

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample
size		 TO Lead
NC Report 02.08.16–06.08.16 1,255 70.0% 17.2 16.7 20.3 12.3 13.9 9.1 7.5 3.1 3.1
General Election 26.06.16 N/A 63.2% 13.9 10.9 18.2 16.1 24.5 13.4 – – 6.3
GAD3 13.06.16–16.06.16 800 ? 19.4 15.8 21.5 13.0 14.1 8.8 3.6 2.1
GESOP 18.04.16–22.04.16 1,600 ? 13.3 16.2 25.6 13.7 12.3 9.1 6.5 9.4
Redondo & Asociados 03.01.16 ? ? 13.8 12.0 14.7 14.4 22.0 10.6 8.3 7.3
General Election 20.12.15 N/A 68.6% 15.1 13.0 16.0 15.7 24.7 11.1 – 1.7 8.7
DYM 30.11.15–03.12.15 504 ? 12.6 23.5 24.0 13.0 7.4 7.2 11.8 0.5
Feedback 20.11.15–27.11.15 1,000 ? 15.9 19.9 21.1 13.5 8.7 8.3 8.3 2.2 1.3

w/ JxSí

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample
size		 TO Lead
CEO 17.10.16–03.11.16 1,500 70% 37.4 15.7 11.7 15.4 10.0 5.2 21.7
NC Report 02.08.16–06.08.16 1,255 70.0% 36.0 16.7 12.3 13.9 9.1 7.7 3.1 19.3
CEO 28.06.16–13.07.16 1,500 70% 38.2 14.8 12.8 16.8 8.8 5.2 21.4
CEO 22.02.16–08.03.16 1,500 70% 35.8 16.7 12.2 17.9 7.0 7.5 17.9
NC Report 28.12.15–31.12.15 1,255 72.5% 35.6 21.2 12.1 9.5 8.4 8.9 2.9 14.4
DYM 30.11.15–03.12.15 504 ? 36.6 23.5 13.0 7.4 7.2 11.8 13.1
Feedback 20.11.15–27.11.15 1,000 ? 37.6 19.7 13.1 8.3 8.7 9.0 1.9 17.9
CEO 16.11.15–23.11.15 1,050 72% 38.1 21.2 12.4 9.0 7.4 8.5 16.9
NC Report 26.10.15–31.10.15 1,255 71.8% 36.4 20.9 13.0 7.6 8.7 8.6 3.1 15.5
CEO 05.10.15–27.10.15 2,000 70% 39.8 18.0 10.6 9.3 7.0 11.1 21.8
Regional Election 27.09.15 N/A 74.9% 39.6 17.9 12.7 8.9 8.5 8.2 2.5 21.7

Seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 68 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.

w/o JxSí

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date
ERC 03.10.16 17/20 23/25 39/40 14/17 21/22 11/12 5/6 0
NC Report 02.08.16–06.08.16 28 23 29 15 17 11 9 3
General Election 26.06.16 (21) (14) (27) (22) (32) (19) – –
GAD3 13.06.16–16.06.16 31 22 33 16 18 12 3 0
GESOP 18.04.16–22.04.16 20/21 20/21 40/41 18/19 15/16 12/13 7/8 0
Redondo & Asociados 03.01.16 22/23 15 22/23 20 31 14 10 0
General Election 20.12.15 (24) (18) (24) (21) (33) (15) – (0)
Feedback 20.11.15–27.11.15 24/25 27/29 32/34 17/18 10/12 10/12 10 0

w/ JxSí

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date
CEO 17.10.16–03.11.16 60/62 20/21 14/15 19/20 13/14 6/8 0
NC Report 02.08.16–06.08.16 57 23 15 17 11 10 2
CEO 28.06.16–13.07.16 60/62 18/21 16/17 20/22 11/12 6/8 0
CEO 22.02.16–08.03.16 56/58 22/23 13/14 21/23 9/10 9/11 0
NC Report 28.12.15–31.12.15 56 29 15 12 10 11 2
Feedback 20.11.15–27.11.15 59/61 26/27 16/17 9/10 11/12 12 0
CEO 16.11.15–23.11.15 58/61 28/31 15/17 9/11 9/10 10/11 0
NC Report 26.10.15–31.10.15 58 29 16 8 11 11 2
CEO 05.10.15–27.10.15 61/63 24/26 14/15 10/12 8/10 14/16 0
Regional Election 27.09.15 62 25 16 11 11 10 0

Notes

  1. 1 2 Due to impossibility of direct comparison due to CDC/PDECAT, ERC, DC and MES contesting the 2015 election within the JxSí political alliance, an unofficial comparison is calculated using the strength ratio (29:20:1:1 out of 62) of all four parties in Parliament after the 2015 election.
  2. ↑ Incumbent Mayor of Barcelona Ada Colau is the leader of the Barcelona-based BC alliance and the main reference behind the Catalan-based ECP coalition, with which Podemos and ICV–EUiA have contested the general elections of 2015 and 2016 in Catalonia. It is not yet confirmed whether she will be the force's candidate for President of Catalonia in a prospective parliamentary election.
  3. ↑ It is not yet clear whether Unidos Podemos-aligned parties will contest the election under one of the CSQP or ECP labels or another different electoral formula.
  4. ↑ Compared to CSQP results in the 2015 election.

References

  1. 1 2 3 4 "Statute of Autonomy of Catalonia; Title II. Of institutions, Chapter I. Of the Parliament.". noticias.juridicas.com. Retrieved 2015-12-30.
  2. ↑ "CUP rejects investing Mas and forces a new election" (in Spanish). El País. 2016-01-03.
  3. ↑ "Catalonia faces new election as leftist CUP rejects Mas". BBC News. 2016-01-03.
  4. 1 2 "Artur Mas assumes the "error" of having trusted the CUP and will sign the election call decree on Monday" (in Spanish). La Vanguardia. 2016-01-05.
  5. 1 2 "Artur Mas Steps Down And Announces 11th-Hour Separatist Deal In Catalonia". The Spain Report. The Spain Report Ltd. 2016-01-09. Retrieved 2016-01-09.
  6. ↑ "Organic Law 5/1985, of 19 June, of the General Electoral Regime".
  7. ↑ "Organic Law 6/2006, of 19 July, of Reform of the Statute of Autonomy of Catalonia".
  8. ↑ "Independentists win the election, lose the plebiscite" (in Spanish). El País. 2015-09-27.
  9. ↑ "JxSí and CUP submit in Parliament a motion to "start the process" towards independence" (in Spanish). El Periódico. 2015-10-27.
  10. ↑ "Catalan parliament passes motion declaring start of secession process". El País. 2015-11-09.
  11. ↑ "JxSí and CUP pave the way for breaking with Spain" (in Spanish). El Periódico. 2015-10-28.
  12. ↑ "Opposition builds a common front against the decision of the "Catalan Republic"" (in Spanish). El Periódico. 2015-10-27.
  13. ↑ "The CUP shield their refusal to Mas' investiture to Forcadell" (in Spanish). El Periódico. 2015-11-05.
  14. ↑ "Artur Mas' re-election fails in the first investiture" (in Spanish). El Diario. 2015-11-10.
  15. ↑ "Artur Mas loses the second ballot to be invested after another 'no' of the CUP" (in Spanish). El Diario. 2015-11-12.
  16. ↑ "Podemos' triumph against sovereignism" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2015-12-20.
  17. ↑ "Catalonia leaves its future in Podemos' hands" (in Spanish). El Diario. 2015-12-21.
  18. ↑ "Colau propels Podemos and defeats Mas in Catalonia" (in Spanish). El País. 2015-12-21.
  19. ↑ "Podemos' victory in Catalonia, behind the CUP's 'slam' to Artur Mas" (in Spanish). El Boletín. 2016-01-04.
  20. ↑ "Together for Yes proposes the CUP for Artur Mas to lead a "transition presidency"" (in Spanish). La Vanguardia. 2015-12-21.
  21. ↑ "CUP's assembly ends in a draw and doesn't unlocks the investiture" (in Spanish). El País. 2015-12-27.
  22. ↑ "Anti-capitalist CUP party unable to agree on Catalan leadership vote". El País. 2015-12-28.
  23. ↑ "CUP's 'no' condemns Mas to either go or call a new election" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2016-01-03.
  24. ↑ "Antonio Baños renounces his seat because of the CUP's decision not to invest Mas" (in Spanish). La Vanguardia. 2016-01-04.
  25. ↑ "Antonio Baños resigns because of discrepancies with CUP's decision not to invest Artur Mas" (in Spanish). El Diario. 2016-01-04.
  26. ↑ "Junqueras calls for CDC and CUP to keep negotiating to avoid an election" (in Spanish). La Vanguardia. 2016-01-04.
  27. ↑ "Spanish PM sees no alternative to new elections in Catalonia". El Economista. 2016-01-05.
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