Colombian presidential election, 2010

Colombian presidential election, 2010
Colombia
30 May and 20 June 2010
 
Nominee Juan Manuel Santos Antanas Mockus
Party Party of the U Green Party
Home state Bogotá Bogotá
Running mate Angelino Garzón Sergio Fajardo
Popular vote 9,028,943 3,587,975
Percentage 69.1% 27.5%

Second Round Results
President before election

Álvaro Uribe
Colombia First

 Elected President

Juan Manuel Santos
Party of the U

Colombia
This article is part of a series on the
politics and government of
Colombia

The Colombian presidential election of 2010 took place under a two-round system, with an initial vote held on May 30 and a second poll held three weeks later on June 20.[1] A referendum proposal that would have allowed incumbent President Álvaro Uribe the opportunity to run for a third term was rejected by the Constitutional Court of Colombia in a 7–2 ruling on February 26, 2010.[2] Because no candidate received a majority (more than one-half) of the votes cast in the May 30 poll, the candidates with the two highest vote totals competed in a runoff election on June 20: Juan Manuel Santos of the liberal-conservative Social Party of National Unity which unites supporters of former President Uribe, and Antanas Mockus from the Green Party. Santos won the election with 69% of the votes.

Candidates

Government group

In 2002, Álvaro Uribe of the Colombia First party was elected president with 53.1 per cent of the vote, breaking the two-party system that ruled the country since 1958, with the promise of ending the armed conflict that haunts the country since 1964 by strengthening the Armed Forces.[3] In 2006, he managed to change the Constitution in order to run for a second consecutive term.[3] After a practically mute campaign, Uribe won the election with 62.2 per cent of the vote, followed by Carlos Gaviria of the Alternative Democratic Pole with a distant 22 per cent.[3]

In 2007, Luis Guillermo Giraldo, leader of the pro-Uribe Party of the U, announced he would create the "promoters' committee", a group charged with gathering signatures to call a referendum on whether Uribe should be allowed to run for a third term in office.[3] In September 2009, Congress approved the referendum bill in a late-night voting boycotted by members of the opposition.[3] On February 26, 2010, the Constitutional Court voted against the referendum bill.[3] Immediately after the ruling, former defence minister Juan Manuel Santos confirmed that he would become a presidential candidate.[3] Another Uribist candidate was Germán Vargas Lleras of the Radical Change party.[3] Former Colombian ambassador to the United Kingdom, Noemí Sanín, and former agriculture minister Andrés Felipe Arias, two of the closest Uribe allies, were seeking nomination by the Conservative Party.[3] Sanín was nominated.

Opposition group

Two of the opposition candidates were Rafael Pardo of the Liberal Party and Gustavo Petro of the Alternative Democratic Pole.[3] Álvaro Leyva Durán, a Uribe opponent, was seeking the presidential nomination by the Conservative Party.[3]

On October 2, 2009, the Green Party was officially created.[3] It nominated its presidential candidate on a primary ballot that took place on March 14, 2010, the same day as the legislative election.[3] The contenders were three former Bogotá mayors: Enrique Peñalosa, Antanas Mockus, and Luis Eduardo Garzón. The Greens seek to be a moderate force in what they called "a polarized" political situation, calling themselves "Post-Uribists."[3] Mockus was chosen as their candidate. Former Medellín mayor Sergio Fajardo joined him as his running mate on 5 April 2010, after missing the requirements to become a presidential candidate himself.[4]

Opinion polls

First Round

Date Institute Candidate Undecided
(Ns/Nr)
V. None		 Source
Rafael Pardo Gustavo Petro Germán Vargas Lleras Sergio Fajardo Juan Manuel Santos Antanas Mockus Noemí Sanín Róbinson Devia Jaime Araújo Jairo Calderón
March 24, 2010 Invamer Gallup 5.1% 6.3% 6.2% 6.1% 34.2% 10.4% 23.3% 0% 0% 0% 8.4% [5]
March 26, 2010 Datexco 5.5% 7.1% 6.6% 4.4% 34.1% 8.9% 21.7% 0% 0.2% 0.1% 11.4% [6]
March 27, 2010 Ipsos Napoleón Franco 4% 6% 8% 5% 36% 9% 17% 1% 0% 0% 14% [7]
March 27, 2010 Centro Nacional de Consultoría 3.4% 3.6% 6.5% 3.6% 28.6% 11.3% 21.9% 0% 0% 0% 21.1% [8]
April 8, 2010 Centro Nacional de Consultoría 5% 6% 3% - 37% 22% 20% 0% 0% 0% 7% [9]
April 9, 2010 Datexco 5.2% 3.1% 3% - 29.5% 24.8% 16.4% 0% 0% 0% 17.2% [10]
April 15, 2010 Centro Nacional de Consultoría 4% 4% 2% - 36% 29% 19% 0% 1% 0% 5% [11]
April 16, 2010 Ipsos Napoleón Franco 5% 4% 3% - 30% 20% 12% 1% 5% 5% 15% [12]
April 22, 2010 Centro Nacional de Consultoría 5% 5% 4% - 35% 34% 12% 0% 1% 0% 3% [13]
April 26, 2010 Ipsos Napoleón Franco 3% 5% 3% - 29% 38% 11% 0% 1% 0% 10% [14]
April 28, 2010 Invamer Gallup 5.7% 5.0% 3.6% - 34.2% 31.6% 16.2% 0% 0.1% 0% 3.5% [15]
April 29, 2010 Centro Nacional de Consultoría 3% 5% 4% - 34% 39% 11% 0% 0% 0% 4% [16]
April 30, 2010 Datexco 2.3% 2.9% 3.3% - 26.7% 38.7% 9.8% 0% 0% 0% 16.3% [17]
May 6, 2010 Centro Nacional de Consultoría 3% 5% 5% - 34% 38% 11% 0% 0% 0% 4% [18]
May 7, 2010 Datexco 1.4% 4.2% 3.1% - 25.2% 37.7% 6.7% 0% 0% 0% 21.7% [19]
May 9, 2010 Ipsos Napoleón Franco 4% 4% 3% - 35% 34% 8% 0% 0% 0% 12% [20]
May 13, 2010 Centro Nacional de Consultoría 3% 4% 4% - 38% 36% 9% 0% 0% 0% 6% [21]
May 14, 2010 Datexco 3.1% 7.5% 4.3% - 29.3% 32.8% 5.6% 0% 0.4% 0% 13.8% [22]
May 19, 2010 Invamer Gallup 3.8% 7.3% 3.8% - 37.5% 35.4% 8.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0% 3.1% [23]
May 20, 2010 University of Medellin 2.4% 5.5% 3.6% - 32.9% 37.4% 8.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 6.9% [24]
May 20, 2010 Centro Nacional De Consultoría 4% 5% 4% - 39% 34% 9% 0% 0% 0% 4% [25]
May 21, 2010 Datexco 2% 5% 3% - 35% 34% 9% 0% 0% 0% 12% [26]
May 22, 2010 Ipsos Napoleón Franco 3% 6% 5% - 34% 32% 6% 0% 0% 0% 14% [27]

Second Round: Mockus vs. Santos

Date Institute Candidate Undecided
(Ns/Nr)
V. None		 Source
Juan Manuel Santos Antanas Mockus
April 15, 2010 Centro Nacional de Consultoría 49% 44% 7% [28]
April 16, 2010 Ipsos Napoleón Franco 45% 37% 18% [12]
April 22, 2010 Centro Nacional de Consultoría 44% 50% 6% [13]
April 26, 2010 Ipsos Napoleón Franco 37% 50% 13% [14]
April 28, 2010 Invamer Gallup 42.2% 47.9% 9.9% [15]
April 29, 2010 Centro Nacional de Consultoría 42% 53% 5% [16]
April 30, 2010 Datexco 29% 41.5% 29.5% [17]
May 6, 2010 Centro Nacional de Consultoría 43% 50% 7% [18]
May 7, 2010 Datexco 30.5% 52% 17.5% [19]
May 9, 2010 Ipsos Napoleón Franco 41% 48% 11% [20]
May 13, 2010 Centro Nacional de Consultoría 47% 47% 6% [21]
May 14, 2010 Datexco 33.6% 47.9% 17.5% [22]
May 19, 2010 Invamer Gallup 42.2% 48.5% 9.3% [23]
May 20, 2010 University of Medellin 36% 41.4% 22.6% [29]
May 20, 2010 Centro Nacional de Consultoría 47% 46% 7% [25]
May 21, 2010 Datexco 44% 45% 11% [30]
May 22, 2010 Ipsos Napoleón Franco 40% 45% 15% [27]
June 3, 2010 Centro Nacional de Consultoría 61.6% 29.8% 5.8% [31]

Electoral results

On polling day seven Colombian security services personnel were killed and eight were missing; parallels were drawn with FARC attacks and Santos' tenure as Defense Minister.[32]

Results

No candidate received an outright majority in the first round vote held on May 30. Santos and Mockus faced one another in the runoff election on 20 June, leading to the election of Juan Manuel Santos as the next Colombian President.

Santos achieved a landslide victory, with 69 per cent of the votes.[33] Mockus got 27.51 per cent of votes.[34] This was the largest margin of victory for a president in the democratic period of Colombia's history.[35] Santos won 32 of the country's 33 electoral districts.[33] His allies have an overwhelming majority in the Colombian Congress.[33] Santos vowed to continue his predecessor's hardline stance against the country's Marxist rebels.[33] He paraphrased Isaac Newton – "If we have come far it's because we are standing on the shoulders of giants" – and said he would rid Colombia of what he described as the "nightmare of violence".[36]

The United States State Department said it was "pleased" with the election of Santos and praised the "spirited debate" before the runoff and Colombia's "longstanding commitment to democratic principles".[35]

 Summary of the 30 May 2010 and 20 June 2010 Colombian presidential election results
Candidates – Parties First round Second round
Votes % Votes %
Juan Manuel Santos – Social Party of National Unity (Partido de «la U») 6,802,043 46.68 9,028,943 69.13
Antanas Mockus – Green Party (Partido Verde) 3,134,222 21.51 3,587,975 27.47
Germán Vargas Lleras – Radical Change (Cambio Radical) 1,473,627 10.11  
Gustavo Petro – Alternative Democratic Pole (Polo Democrático Alternativo) 1,331,267 9.14
Noemí Sanín – Colombian Conservative Party (Partido Conservador Colombiano) 893,819 6.13
Rafael Pardo – Colombian Liberal Party (Partido Liberal Colombiano) 638,302 4.38
Róbinson Devia – Voice of Conscience Movement (Movimiento la Voz de la Consciencia) 31,338 0.22
Jairo Calderón – Liberal Opening (Movimiento Apertura Liberal) 29,151 0.20
Jaime Araújo – Afro-Colombian Social Alliance (Alianza Social Afrocolombiano) 14,847 0.10
Total votes for candidates 14,348,616 98.46 12,616,918 96.60
Blank votes 223,977 1.54 444,274 3.40
Total valid votes 14,572,593 100.00 13,061,192 100.00
Null votes 170,874   198,003  
Unmarked ballots 37,553   37,729  
Turnout 14,781,020 49.27 13,296,924 44.33
Source: Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil, Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil

See also

Notes and references

  1. ↑ Maximiliano Herrera. "Electoral Calendar- world elections,US elections,presidential election,world parties". Mherrera.org. Retrieved 2010-06-23.
  2. ↑ Markey, Patrick (2010-02-26). "Colombia's Uribe blocked from re-election". Reuters. Retrieved 2010-02-26.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Uribe will not run again. Angus Reid Global Monitor. March 14, 2010.
  4. ↑ "Santos, Sanín Could Go to Run-off in Colombia: Angus Reid Global Monitor". Angus-reid.com. Retrieved 2010-06-23.
  5. ↑ La Opinión, ed. (24 March 2010). "Primera gran encuesta de medios sobre intención de voto para las próximas elecciones presidenciales".
  6. ↑ El Tiempo, ed. (26 March 2010). "Juan Manuel Santos, con 34,1 por ciento, encabeza encuesta de Datexco; Noemí Sanín lo sigue con 21,7".
  7. ↑ Revista Semana, ed. (27 March 2010). "El Partidor".
  8. ↑ Revista Poder, ed. (27 March 2010). "¿Santos vs. Noemí en segunda vuelta?".
  9. ↑ Revista Semana, ed. (8 April 2010). "Mockus supera a Sanín en encuesta del Centro Nacional de Consultoría".
  10. ↑ Diario El Tiempo, ed. (9 April 2010). "Nuevo Opinómetro de Datexco revela que Santos y Mockus disputarían la segunda vuelta".
  11. ↑ Diario El Espectador, ed. (15 April 2010). "Nueva encuesta presidencial revela que Mockus está a sólo 7 puntos de Santos".
  12. 1 2 Revista Semana, ed. (16 April 2010). "Habría segunda vuelta Santos – Mockus, según Gran Encuesta".
  13. 1 2 CM&, ed. (22 April 2010). "GRAN ENCUESTA CM&: Antanas Mockus ganaría la Presidencia si la segunda vuelta fuera mañana".
  14. 1 2 Semana, ed. (26 April 2010). "Mockus 38% – Santos 29%, en primera; Mockus 50% – Santos 37%, en segunda".
  15. 1 2 Caracol Televisión, ed. (28 April 2010). "Santos ganaría en primera vuelta y Mockus, en segunda".
  16. 1 2 Noticiero CM&, ed. (29 April 2010). "Candidato Antanas Mockus encabeza nueva encuesta de CM& y el Centro Nacional de Consultoría".
  17. 1 2 El Tiempo, ed. (30 April 2010). "Mockus tendría el 41,5% de intención de voto en segunda vuelta y Santos el 29%, según Datexco".
  18. 1 2 El Espectador, ed. (6 May 2010). "Nueva encuesta da a Mockus una ventaja de cuatro puntos sobre Santos".
  19. 1 2 W Radio, ed. (7 May 2010). "Antanas Mockus con un 37,7% encabeza intención de voto, revela encuesta de Datexco".
  20. 1 2 Semana, ed. (9 May 2010). "¡Empatados!".
  21. 1 2 CM&, ed. (13 May 2010). "Nueva gran encuesta presidencial CM& – Centro Nacional de Consultoría".
  22. 1 2 Caracol Radio, ed. (14 May 2010). "Nueva encuesta de Datexco mantiene en primer lugar a Mockus".
  23. 1 2 El Tiempo, ed. (19 May 2010). "Santos, con el 37,5%, y Mockus, con el 35,4%, encabezan intención de voto: encuesta Invamer Gallup".
  24. ↑ El Espectador, ed. (20 May 2010). "Segunda Encuesta Elecciones Presidenciales 2010".
  25. 1 2 El Tiempo, ed. (20 May 2010). "Santos 39%; Mockus 34%, según la más reciente encuesta del centro Nacional de Consultoría".
  26. ↑ El Tiempo, ed. (21 May 2010). "Empate técnico entre Santos, con el 35%, y Mockus, con el 34%, revela sondeo de Datexco".
  27. 1 2 El Espectador, ed. (22 May 2010). "Santos ganador en primera vuelta mientras Mockus lo haría en la segunda".
  28. ↑ Diario El Pais, ed. (15 April 2010). "Según nueva encuesta, Mockus está a siete puntos de Santos".
  29. ↑ El Espectador, ed. (20 May 2010). "Encuesta de la Universidad de Medellín da como ganador a Mocku".
  30. ↑ El Tiempo, ed. (21 May 2010). "Empate técnico entre Santos, con el 35%, y Mockus, con el 34%, revela sondeo de Datexco".
  31. ↑ AFP, ed. (3 June 2010). "Los sondeos dan una victoria aplastante de Santos en las elecciones de Colombia".
  32. ↑ "Police killed on Colombia poll day - Americas". Al Jazeera English. 2010-05-29. Retrieved 2010-06-23.
  33. 1 2 3 4 Hennigan, Tom (22 June 2010). "Landslide win for Santos in Colombian election". The Irish Times. Irish Times Trust. Retrieved 22 June 2010.
  34. ↑ Xuequan, Mu (20 June 2010). "Santos elected as new president of Colombia". Xinhua News Agency. Retrieved 20 June 2010.
  35. 1 2 "U.S. is 'pleased' with Colombia's new president-elect Santos". The Hindu. 22 June 2010. Retrieved 22 June 2010.
  36. ↑ Murphy, Helen; Bristow, Matthew (21 June 2010). "Colombia's Santos Hails Uribe in Landslide Victory (Correct)". Business Week. Retrieved 21 June 2010.
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