Ben Carson presidential campaign, 2016

Ben Carson for President
Campaign U.S. presidential election, 2016
Candidate Ben Carson
Affiliation Republican Party
Status Announced May 3, 2015
Suspended March 4, 2016[1]
Headquarters 1800 Diagonal Rd., Ste. 140
Alexandria, Virginia[2]
Key people Bob Dees (Campaign Chairman)
Ed Brookover (Campaign Manager)
Larry Ross (Communications Director)
Deana Bass (Press Secretary)
Amy Pass (National Finance Director)
G. Michael Brown (National Political Director)
Don Green (Head Researcher)
Receipts US$54,036,610[3] (2015-12-31[4])
Slogan
Website
www.bencarson.com

The 2016 presidential campaign of Ben Carson, a pediatric neurosurgeon and bestselling author, was announced May 3, 2015, in an interview with a local television station in Cincinnati, Ohio. He formally announced his candidacy for the Republican nomination in the 2016 presidential election at a rally in his hometown of Detroit on May 4, 2015.[5] On March 4, 2016, Carson officially ended his campaign in a speech at CPAC.[1] He endorsed Donald Trump on March 11.[6] After Trump won the general election, Carson announced that he would have a role in the Trump administration, overseeing the repeal and replacement of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.[7]

Background

2013 National Prayer Breakfast

Carson entered the political scene at the 2013 National Prayer Breakfast on February 7.[8] In his speech, he commented on political correctness ("dangerous", because it goes against freedom of expression), education, health care, and taxation. Regarding education, he spoke favorably about graduation rates in 1831, when Alexis de Tocqueville visited the United States, and when "anybody finishing the second grade was completely literate". He espoused the idea of a tax-exempt health savings account created at birth, that can be bequeathed at death, along with an electronic medical record and birth certificate. He supports a flat tax, which he calls the "proportional tax" in reference to the biblical tithe.[9] The speech garnered Carson considerable attention because the event is normally apolitical in nature, and the speech was critical of the philosophy and policies of President Barack Obama, who was sitting less than 10 feet away.[10] Conservative commentators from Rush Limbaugh to Sean Hannity and Neil Cavuto of Fox News praised the speech as an example of speaking "truth to power." The Wall Street Journal published an op-ed article the day after the Prayer Breakfast titled "Ben Carson for President," which said that "the Johns Hopkins neurosurgeon may not be politically correct, but he's closer to correct than anything we've heard in years."[11]

Polling

He was a featured speaker at the 2013 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), and tied for seventh place in the Washington Times/CPAC 2013 Straw Poll with 4% of the 3,000 ballots cast.[12][13] In the 2014 CPAC straw poll, he came in third place with 9% of the vote, behind senators Ted Cruz of Texas (with 11%) and Rand Paul of Kentucky (31%).[14] In the 2015 CPAC poll, Carson came in fourth behind Paul, Wisconsin governor Scott Walker, and Cruz with 11.4%.[15]

Carson has also had a strong showing in the polls at the 2013 and 2014 Values Voter Summits; in 2013, he tied with former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum for second place with 13%, behind Ted Cruz's 42%. In 2014, he came in second with 20%, behind Cruz's 25%, and also came in first place in the same group's vice presidential poll.[16][17]

In February 2014 a Baltimore Sun poll ranked him first among potential Republican candidates, with 24% (Jeb Bush was in second place with 15%); in another during the same month, an online poll of 62,000 conservative activists, Carson came in third.[18] In an interview with The Weekly Standard in May 2014, Carson said that he was "warming up to the idea" of a presidential run. In June 2014, Carson appeared in the first national poll for the 2016 presidential election through Rasmussen. In a hypothetical race against Hillary Clinton, Carson tied with Rand Paul for the strongest showing out of any potential Republican nominee, trailing Clinton by only 7%.[19] Carson also polled well in a Cygnal poll in Alabama, where he came in second behind Jeb Bush.[20][21]

On August 25, Carson won a large majority of the vote in the Iowa Polk County Straw Poll, with 62%; the next-highest candidate, Ted Cruz, won only 7%.[22]

"Draft Ben Carson Committee" and fundraising

A group using the catchphrase "Run, Ben, Run" got started to draft him for the Republican nomination.[23] The organization, then called the "National Draft Ben Carson for President Committee" and now known as "The 2016 Committee," was founded by John Philip Sousa IV, a great grandson of John Philip Sousa. It has also served as the primary fundraiser for a potential campaign, with Sousa reporting on April 12 that the movement had raised over US$4 million, and that a potential campaign apparatus, from television ads to mailing lists, had already been set up.[18] At the end of June 2014, the Draft Committee reported that it had raised over US$7 million from 91,000 donors.[24]

Carson speaking at the 2015 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in National Harbor, Maryland, on February 26, 2015.

On August 2, 2014, it was reported that Carson had officially approved the formation of his own Political Action Committee, named One Nation, and also appointed Texas businessman Terry Giles as chairman of a potential presidential campaign. Carson suggested that his final decision on whether or not to run would depend on the results of the 2014 midterms, and whether the Republicans would regain control of the U.S. Senate. This announcement came shortly after Sousa reported that the draft committee had raised yet another US$1 million, resulting in US$8 million raised overall.[25][26]

When interviewed by radio host Hugh Hewitt in late September 2014, Carson said "the likelihood is strong" that he would run for president.[27] In October 2014 Bloomberg Politics reported that the Draft Carson movement out-fundraised the pro-Hillary Clinton PAC Ready for Hillary in the third quarter of 2014,[28] shortly after an Iowa poll by the Des Moines Register showed Carson in second place among potential 2016 candidates, only behind Mitt Romney.[29] He came in second place in a similar Fox News poll, behind former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee by 1%.[30]

In early November 2014, following the Republicans' recapture of the Senate, Carson announced that a 40-minute documentary called A Breath of Fresh Air: A New Prescription for America would be airing to essentially "introduce himself". He also announced that he was officially switching his political affiliation from Independent to Republican for the first time ever, spurring even more speculation that he would run for the GOP nomination, and leading many to consider him the very first GOP candidate to essentially confirm his run.[31][32][33][34]

On November 7, Fox News and Carson confirmed that his relationship with the cable news channel had ended. Carson had been hired by Fox News in October 2013.[35]

In January 2015, The Weekly Standard reported that the Draft Carson Committee had raised US$13 million by the end of 2014, shortly after Carson performed well in a CNN/ORC poll of potential candidates in December 2014, coming in second in two different versions: He came in second with 10% behind Mitt Romney's 20%, but in the same poll with Romney removed from the list, Carson closed the gap with 11% to Jeb Bush's 14%.[36][37] The Wall Street Journal mentioned that the Draft Carson Committee had chairmen in all of Iowa's 99 counties, and that Carson had recently come in first place in two separate Public Policy polls for the state of Pennsylvania.[38][39]

The National Draft Ben Carson for President Committee helped make the retired neurosurgeon the first candidate successfully drafted for president since 1964, when Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater, an early leader of conservatism in the United States, won the GOP nomination.[40]

Much of the Committee's success in drafting Ben Carson for president can be attributed to the bottom-up online fundraising strategy they pioneered. Their strategy utilized technically savvy volunteers tasked with following up with donors and prospective donors.This authentic interaction between donors and follow-up volunteers fueled online fundraising and the momentum for a prospective Carson candidacy.[41]

Many consider the fact that Carson has never held public office to be one of his largest obstacles, as only one person, Wendell Willkie, has ever been nominated by a major party without having held public office or flag rank in the armed forces.[42] His lack of political experience, however, also has been acclaimed by both himself and others, as they argue that it shows him to be someone who can relate to the people of the US, rather than being the "typical politician," and that the teams of doctors he has overseen; his nonprofit scholarship program, which is in all 50 states and Washington, D.C.; and especially his corporate board work at Kellogg's and Costco for 18 and 16 years respectively provide him with enough experience for the presidency as well as help him to relate with the people of the real world as president.[43][44][45][46]

Campaign

On May 2, 2015, Carson proclaimed that in two days, he was going to make a major announcement on his decision on whether to enter the Presidential Race.[47] In an interview with a Cincinnati TV station WKRC (AM) on May 3, 2015, Carson accidentally confirmed his candidacy for president.[48] The interview was also broadcast live on WPEC.[49] The next day, May 4, 2015, at the Music Hall Center for the Performing Arts in his home town of Detroit,[5] he officially announced his run for the Republican nomination in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. The announcement speech was preceded by a choir singing Lose Yourself with Carson sitting in the audience. After the song, Carson took the stage and announced his candidacy alongside a rousing speech on his Rags to riches life story, at one point stating: “I remember when our favorite drug dealer was killed."[50][51] At the event, he announced his campaign team, which included his Campaign manager, Barry Bennett.[52]

In late March 2015, Carson had his first-ever victory in a national poll for the 2016 GOP field, when a Fox News poll showed him tied for first with former Florida governor Jeb Bush, with 13% each. He has continued to poll well in Fox News polls, later matching this same result in early May.[53] He also tied for first in a Quinnipiac University poll along with four others, all at 10% each; the others were Bush, Mike Huckabee, Marco Rubio, and Scott Walker.[54] In an early June poll by The Economist and YouGov, Carson tied once more with Rubio for first, at 10% each.[55] His first ever first-place performance in a national poll came in mid-June, in a Monmouth University poll that had him at 11%.[56]

In late May, Carson won the presidential straw poll at the 2015 Southern Republican Leadership Conference, with 25.4% of the vote,[57] and in July he came first in a straw poll of the Washington, D.C. Republican Party, with 44%.[58] Carson also came in first in two consecutive annual polls from the Western Conservative Summit; in 2014, he won 22% of the vote, and in 2015, he won with 26% – 224 votes out of 871 total.[59][60]

In June, a few of the most important officials in Carson's campaign, including his campaign chairman and finance chief and chief legal counsel, left; his super-PACs have been competing against each other and his own campaign fund for funding. An attempt is underway by his departing campaign chairperson, who must first observe a legally-mandated 120-day 'cool-off period', to form a single super-PAC (political action committee) to better channel funds.[61]

In early July, communications director Doug Watts reported that the campaign had raised US$8.3 million over the second quarter of 2015 alone, via 210,000 donations from 151,000 donors.[62][63] Later that same month, the Des Moines Register reported that Carson had raised more money in Iowa than any other Republican candidate, and in the overall general election field, was rivaled in Iowa fundraising only by Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton.[64]

Carson meeting with supporters in New Hampshire, August 2015.

In September 2015, Carson came in second in the Values Voter Summit presidential straw poll for the third consecutive year, once again only behind Ted Cruz, receiving 18% of the vote.[65]

Post-debate surge

Carson successfully qualified for the first presidential debate of the 2016 cycle, hosted by Fox News, coming in 5th place in the overall list of the top 10 candidates.[66]

Carson's performance in the first debate was well-received overall, and in a Suffolk University poll held afterward, Carson was the second-highest performing candidate in the question of who won the debate, with 22%; only Florida Senator Marco Rubio polled higher, by a margin of only 1%.[67] A Fox News poll released after the debate showed that Carson had the biggest average increase in poll performance and approval ratings after the debate; his average increase in most national polls was 5%, or a 71% overall increase in his position.[68] In the immediate aftermath of the debate, Carson saw a bigger increase in his social media followers than any other Republican candidate; he gained 24,000 new Twitter followers (a 10% increase) and 230,000 more likes on his Facebook page (a 12% increase), as well as a 37% increase in Instagram followers.[69][70]

Carson quickly began to rise in many national polls, eventually polling in double digits and securing second place, only behind Trump. Carson subsequently saw a significant increase in two major aggregate polls for the Republican nomination, from Real Clear Politics and The Huffington Post - in both cases, he rose to the #3 spot in the race for the nomination, behind Jeb Bush and Donald Trump, by mid-August. By late August, he had increased his lead in said aggregate polls even further to rise to the #2 position, only behind Trump.[71][72] His rise has further fueled the perception that candidates with little to no political experience, like Carson and Trump, are the new favorite types of candidates among potential primary voters.[73] It also led some commentators to believe that Carson's soft-spoken and calm mannerisms were actually working in his favor among potential voters, in contrast to more conventional rhetoric or the blunt language of such candidates as Trump; this was also noted in Carson repeatedly having the highest ratings out of all the Republican candidates in regards to personal favorability.[74][75][76]

Ben Carson in New Hampshire, 13 August 2015

Carson's performance in the second debate was also very well-received, and solidified his status as the second highest-polling candidate.[77][78] Over the course of the three-hour debate and the hours immediately after, Carson's Facebook page gained an additional 500,000 likes. Less than 10 days after the debate, Carson's Facebook page reached 4 million likes, thus garnering the highest amount of Facebook likes out of any candidate in the 2016 election, from either party.[79]

Carson's surge after the debates also translated well into his national poll standing in general election match-ups. Since late August, Carson became one of the few Republican candidates (alongside Trump, Bush, and Carly Fiorina) who began to develop a lead over Democratic frontrunners Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and Bernie Sanders, in polls from such organizations as Public Policy Polling, CNN, Quinnipiac University, NBC, Fox News, and The Morning Consult.[80][81][82][83][84][85] Eventually, these leads resulted in Carson becoming the one and only Republican candidate who developed a lead over Hillary Clinton in both major aggregate polls, from the Huffington Post and Real Clear Politics.[86][87]

On September 30, it was reported that Carson's campaign had raised US$20.2 million in the third quarter of 2015, thus bringing the campaign's grand total to US$31 million. The additional US$20.2 million was raised through just over 600,000 donations from 353,000 individuals, and altogether was more money raised than the entirety of the 2012 GOP field up to that same point in 2011, and was the highest amount raised by any candidate in the 2016 field; the next-highest was Bush, who raised US$13.4 million.[88] Carson also had the second-highest amount of money on hand at the end of the third quarter, with US$12 million, only behind Ted Cruz's US$13.5 million.[89] In the same period, The 2016 Committee reported that it had raised US$2.8 million and had reached a new total of 31,000 volunteers.[90]

Autumn of 2015

Carson speaking at an event in Phoenix, Arizona.

As the fall of 2015 began, Carson's rise in the polls began to enter the low 20's and solidified Carson as the #2 candidate by double-digit leads over the remaining candidates, while narrowing down the gap between Carson and Trump. This was marked by an NBC News and Wall Street Journal poll where Carson garnered 20% of the vote to Trump's 21%,[91] a Fox News poll where Carson had 23% to Trump's 24%,[92] and eventually taking the lead himself in an IBD/TIPP poll, with 24% to Trump's 17%. With the latter poll, Carson became the first Republican candidate in over two months to take first place over Trump in any national poll, since Jeb Bush in late July.[93] An op-ed article released in conjunction with the Fox News poll declared that Carson was "giving Trump a run for his money" in the race for the nomination.[94][95] By mid-October, Carson had increased his standing in national general election polls, with his leads over Hillary Clinton increasing to 3.5% in the Real Clear Politics poll, and 5.6% in the Huffington Post poll.[86][87]

On October 14, it was reported that Carson was temporarily halting his presidential campaign in order to do a two-week promotional tour for his latest book, A More Perfect Union. However, Carson stated that it was not a suspension of his campaign, and he would still be holding private fundraising events throughout the two-week period.[96][97] During the two-week period, Carson joined with frontrunner Donald Trump in threatening a boycott of CNBC over conditions for the third debate, which would be held at the end of Carson's book tour. The two of them demanded that the debate be limited to a maximum running time of two hours (in response to the previous debate on CNN running for over three hours), and also that opening and closing statements be allowed from the candidates; otherwise, if the conditions were not met, both Carson and Trump would withdraw from the debate.[98][99] On October 16, CNBC announced that it had accepted the demands of Carson and Trump, setting the two-hour maximum and allowing for opening and closing statements.[100][101]

As the fall continued, Carson began to increase his lead in numerous statewide polls. In addition to coming in second, behind Trump, in many crucial primary states, Carson took the lead himself in both Utah and Louisiana,[102][103] and tied for first with Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and the crucial state of Florida.[104][105][106][107] Most prominently, Carson took the lead in two consecutive Iowa polls in late October, thus becoming the first candidate to take the lead in the state since Trump took the lead from Scott Walker in mid-July.[108] Hoping to continue Carson's momentum, the two main super PACs backing Carson - The 2016 Committee, focusing primarily on small donations, and Our Children's Future, focusing on larger donations - announced on October 22 that they would be combining their efforts, pooling together all funds raised and coordinating their advertising campaigns, in the hope that it would be enough to boost Carson past Trump into first place.[109]

End of 2015

Ben Carson speaking at a church service in Des Moines, Iowa.

Both immediately before and immediately after the third debate, Carson began to match Trump for first place in several nationally-recognized polls. Prior to the third debate, Carson came in first in a CBS News/New York Times poll with 26% to Trump’s 22%.[110] After the debate, he came in first in two consecutive NBC polls; in a joint poll between NBC and the Wall Street Journal, Carson had 29% to Trump’s 23%, and in another joint poll between NBC and SurveyMonkey, both men tied at 26% each.[111][112] With these poll numbers, Carson closed the gap with Trump in most aggregate polls, and even became the first candidate since Trump’s rise to claim first place in both the Real Clear Politics and "270 to Win" aggregate polls, in early November.[113][114] Carson also further expanded his polling in individual states, taking the lead in Oklahoma and tying for first, with Trump, in Texas.[115][116] Lastly, Carson came in a narrow second behind Trump in a statewide poll in the early state of New Hampshire, but was well within the poll's margin of error and thus statistically tied with Trump, thus eclipsing Trump in both of the first two primary states.[117]

With his rise in the polls and a subsequent rise in focus, as well as numerous threats against his campaign, Carson, along with Trump, was approved to receive Secret Service protection on November 5.[118] This made both Carson and Trump two of the earliest instances of presidential candidates receiving Secret Service protection in American history, over a year before the general election.[119]

Throughout late October and early November, Carson began to face increased media scrutiny over his biographical narrative and repeatedly pushed back against most criticisms.[120] Coming off the third Republican debate on CNBC, where the moderators were perceived as displaying a liberal bias, Carson capitalized on the media scrutiny and claimed it was also the result of media bias, which subsequently increased his popularity and donations considerably;[121] his campaign reported raising $3.5 million in the first week of November alone in the wake of the media scrutiny.[122] Carson continued to increase his leads in statewide polls, matching Trump for first in Arizona, Georgia, Virginia, and Maryland, while also taking the lead in North Carolina and the significant state of Colorado.[123][124][125][126][127][128] In a final showing before his national numbers dropped out of the double digits, Carson tied for first (alongside Trump) in statewide polls in Tennessee and California.[129][130][131]

In November 2015, Carson's campaign aired a 60-second TV advertisement in which excerpts from Carson's stump speech were intercut with a rap by an artist named Aspiring Mogul.[132] They spent $150,000 on the ads, which were aired in Atlanta, Detroit and Miami.[133] Carson initially weakly defended the ad, saying "Well, there are people in the campaign who felt that was a good way to do things ... I support them in doing that, but I probably would have taken a little different approach.[132] He then later said the advertisement was done without his knowledge, that "it was done by people who have no concept of the black community and what they were doing", and that he was "horrified" by it.[134] A reporter pointed out that the advertisement contained an explicit approval statement from Carson, and he replied "Well, obviously. But you notice no more of those kind of ads coming out now."[134]

After these events and the November 2015 Paris attacks, Carson started slipping in the polls, falling 10 points in Iowa, amid scrutiny of his lack of credentials on foreign affairs.[135][136] Towards the end of November, Carson made an overseas trip to visit the Azraq refugee camp in Jordan, which was housing refugees of the Syrian Civil War, as part of trying to bolster his foreign policy expertise.[137] Upon returning he stated that rather than refugees coming to the United States, as was being debated, they should be sheltered in nearby countries in the Middle East.[137] In early December, the 2015 San Bernardino attack added to the focus of national security issues in the campaign.

By mid-December, Carson's poll numbers had fallen dramatically, both nationwide and in Iowa, where he was polling strongly. A national Quinnipiac poll showed Carson's support dropping from 23 to 16%, while a CBS poll showed Carson's plummeting from 26 to 13%, and a NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed an even more dramatic decrease, from 29 to 11%. In the Real Clear Politics average of national polls, Carson's position had fallen from first with 24.8% on November 5 to fourth with just 13.2%, behind Trump, Rubio, and Cruz, as of December 13.[113] In Iowa, Carson's support had fallen from 28 to 13% according to a Monmouth University poll, and from 32 to 13% in a Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll. His polling average, which had previously reached 29.3% by late October, had fallen to 13.0% by mid-December.[138] Three of Carson's top campaign advisers, campaign manager Barry Bennett, communications director Doug Watts and deputy campaign manager Lisa Coen, resigned from the campaign in late December 2015.[139] Carson hired retired Major Gen. Robert Dees as his new campaign chairman and Ed Brookover as the new campaign manager.[140]

Early 2016

Ben Carson speaking before the Nevada caucuses in February 2016.

In January 2016, Carson lost Sam Pimm, executive director of the pro-Carson super PAC the 2016 Committee, along with all of the PAC's staff in New Hampshire, when they resigned their positions and endorsed GOP rival Ted Cruz.[141]

On January 19, a campaign volunteer, Braden Joplin, 25, was killed and three others injured in a car accident on Interstate 80[142] near Atlantic, Iowa.[143] The campaign released a statement on the crash: “A van transporting three campaign volunteers and a Carson campaign employee hit a patch of ice and flipped on its side where it was struck by another vehicle.”[143] In response, Carson cancelled campaign stops in South Carolina and California, and instead chose to be with Joplin's family at a hospital in Omaha, Nebraska.[142]

In the Iowa Caucuses on February 1, Carson came in 4th place with 9% of the vote (over 17,000 popular votes), thus earning 3 delegates. However, a significant controversy arose when CNN said that Carson was taking a break from the campaign trail. Members of Ted Cruz's campaign caught wind of the story, and began telling voters at the caucuses that Carson had dropped out. Carson accused Cruz's campaign of doing this explicitly to switch potential Carson voters to Cruz, an accusation that front runner Donald Trump also began to use against Cruz.[144][145] Carson leveled these accusations at Cruz consistently over the next few days, particularly during the 8th GOP debate in New Hampshire on February 6.[146] Carson suffered a poor showing at the New Hampshire primary, polling at 2.3%, and receiving 0 delegates.[147] During the debate on February 6, he apparently missed his introduction from the moderator, and could be seen waiting apprehensively offstage while other candidates passed by.[148][149]

On March 2 following the Super Tuesday primaries, Carson announced that he did "not see a political path forward" and would not attend the next Republican debate in Detroit. He said, however, that "this grassroots movement on behalf of 'We the People' will continue," stating that he would give more details March 4.[150] On March 4, Carson officially ended his campaign in a speech at CPAC.[1]

Endorsements

See also

References

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  2. ↑ "Details for Committee ID : C00573519". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved May 6, 2015.
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  159. ↑ "Dr. Ben Carson Announces Retired Judge Charles W. Pickering as State Chair for Mississippi". November 13, 2015.
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