United States redistricting, 2022

Redistricting will occur in the United States in 2022, following the completion of the 2020 United States Census. In all fifty states, various bodies will re-draw state legislative districts. In states with more than member of the United States House of Representatives, new lines will also be drawn for federal House districts. Political parties prepare for redistricting years in advance, and partisan control of redistricting institutions can provide a party with major advantages.^[1] Various laws and court decisions have put constraints on redistricting institutions, but redistricting institutions continue to practice gerrymandering, which involves drawing new districts with the intention of giving a political advantage to specific groups.^[2] Aside from the possibility of mid-decade redistricting,^[3] the districts drawn in 2022 will remain in effect until the next round of redistricting following the 2030 United States Census.

United States House of Representatives

Reapportionment

Article One of the United States Constitution establishes the House of Representatives and apportions representatives among the states based on population, with reapportionment occurring every ten years. Each state will draw new United States House of Representatives districts based on the reapportionment following the 2020 census. Since 1913, the House has consisted of 435 representatives, a number set by statute. Each of the fifty states is guaranteed at least one representative, and the Huntington–Hill method is used to assign the remaining 385 seats to states based on the population of each state. Reapportionment also affects presidential elections, as each state is guaranteed electoral votes equivalent to the number of Congressmen representing the state.

Based on projections of population growth, Northeastern and Midwestern states such as Pennsylvania, New York, Rhode Island, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, and Minnesota may lose seats, while Western and Southern states such as California, Oregon, Arizona, Colorado, Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia may gain seats.^[4] The Southern states of Alabama and West Virginia may also lose seats.^[4]

Redistricting methods

The states have wide latitude in re-drawing House districts, but the Supreme Court case of Wesberry v. Sanders established that states must draw districts that are equal in population "as nearly as is practicable." Subsequent court cases have required states to redistrict every ten years, although states can redistrict more often than that depending on their own statutes and constitutional provisions.^[5] Since the passage of the 1967 Uniform Congressional Districts Act, most states have been barred from using multi-member districts, and all states currently use single-member districts.^[6] The Voting Rights Act of 1965 establishes protections against racial redistricting plans that would deny minority voters an equal opportunity to elect representatives of their choice. The Supreme Court case of Thornburg v. Gingles established a test to determine whether redistricting lines violate the Voting Rights Act. In some cases, courts can require the creation of majority-minority districts.^[7] Many states have also adopted other criteria, including compactness, contiguity, and the preservation of political subdivisions (such as cities or counties) or communities of interest.^[8] Some states, including Arizona, require the drawing of competitive districts.^[8]

Seven states have currently only one Congressman in the House of Representatives; as none of these states are projected to gain an additional seat in the post-2020 reapportionment, they will likely not have to draw House district lines.^[4] The remaining states will draw new House districts based on the number of seats apportioned to them. The United States Constitution grants state governments the power to draw Congressional districts, but the Supreme Court case of Wesberry v. Sanders established that districts within a given state must be equal in population to one another. In most states, the state legislature draws the new districts, but some states have established redistricting commissions.^[9] California, Arizona, Idaho, and Washington use independent commissions to draw House districts, while Hawaii and New Jersey use "politician commissions" to draw House districts.^[9] In all other states with multiple House districts, the legislature draws district lines, although some states have advisory commissions that can play a major role in drawing lines, and other states have backup commissions if the state legislature is unable to draw the lines itself.^[9] Most states draw new lines by passing a law the same way any other law is passed, but some states have special procedures.^[9] Connecticut and Maine require a 2/3 super-majorities in each house of the state legislature for redistricting plans, while district lines are not subject to gubernatorial veto in Connecticut and North Carolina.^[9] The legislatures of Alabama, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia can override gubernatorial vetoes with a simple majority vote,^[10] giving governors in those states little leverage in the drawing of new district maps.

Partisan control of redistricting

The elections preceding 2022, especially the 2018 elections and 2020 elections, will determine which party controls the redistricting process in each state. The table below shows the partisan control of state legislatures and (where relevant) gubernatorial seats in 2022.

Redistricting plans passed by legislature

The table shows partisan control following the 2016 elections. Partisan control in at least some states is likely to change between 2016 and the passage of redistricting plans in 2022.

Congressional redistricting methods by state.

•   Independent commission
•   Politician commission
•   Passed by legislature with gubernatorial approval
•   Passed by legislature, governor cannot veto
•   Passed by legislature, simple majority veto override
•   One at-large district

An * indicates a 2/3 super-majority vote is required
A † indicates that the state employs an advisory commission
A ‡ indicates that the state employs a backup commission

Other states

Four states with multiple members of the House of Representatives use independent commissions to draw Congressional districts. In Arizona and Washington, the four party leaders of the state house and state senate each select one member of the Independent Redistricting Commission, and these four members select a fifth member who is not affiliated with either party. In California, the Citizen’s Redistricting Commission consists of five Democrats, five Republicans, and four individuals who are not members of either party. In Idaho, the four party leaders of the state house and state senate and the chairmen of the two most popular state parties (based on the results of the most recent gubernatorial vote) each select a member of the Commission for Reapportionment.^[12]

Two states use politician commissions to draw Congressional districts. In Hawaii, the president of the state senate and the speaker of the state house each select two members of the Reapportionment Commission, while the minority parties in both chambers each appoint two members of the commission. The eight members of the commission then select a ninth member, who also chairs the commission. In New Jersey, the four party leaders of the state house and state senate and the party leaders of the two largest parties each choose two members of the Apportionment Commission, and the twelve members of the commission select a thirteenth member to chair the commission.^[12]

Alaska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Delaware, and Vermont are likely to continue to have only one representative in the House, and so will not have to draw new House districts. Rhode Island could also lose its second representative.^[4]

State legislatures

Each state draw new legislative district boundaries every ten years. Every state except Nebraska has a bicameral legislative branch. Nebraska is unique in that it has a unicameral legislative branch which is also officially non-partisan.

Redistricting methods

The states have wide latitude in re-drawing legislative districts, but the Supreme Court case of Reynolds v. Sims established that states must draw districts that are "substantially equal" in population to one another. Federal court cases have established that deviation between the largest and smallest districts generally cannot be greater than ten percent. Some states have laws requiring less deviation. Court cases have also required states to redistrict every ten years, although states can redistrict more often than that depending on their own statutes and constitutional provisions.^[5] States are free to employ multi-member districts, and different districts can elect different numbers of legislators.^[13] The Voting Rights Act of 1965 establishes protections against racial redistricting plans that would deny minority voters an equal opportunity to elect representatives of their choice. The Supreme Court case of Thornburg v. Gingles established a test to determine whether redistricting lines violate the Voting Rights Act.^[7] Many states have also adopted other criteria, including compactness, contiguity, and the preservation of political subdivisions (such as cities or counties) or communities of interest.^[8] Some states, including Arizona, require the drawing of competitive districts,^[8] while other states require the nesting of state house districts within state senate districts.^[14]

Alaska, California, Washington, Oregon, Idaho and Montana have all established independent commissions to draw state legislative districts. New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Arkansas, and Colorado use politician commissions to draw new districts. In the other states, the legislature is ultimately charged with drawing new lines, although some states have advisory or back-up commissions. Connecticut, Illinois, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Texas, and Oregon have backup commissions that draw district lines if the legislature is unable to agree on new districts. Iowa, Maine, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont employ advisory commissions. In Connecticut and Maine, a 2/3 super-majority vote in each house is required to create new districts, while in Connecticut, Florida, Maryland, Mississippi, and North Carolina, the governor cannot veto redistricting plans.^[15] The legislatures of Alabama, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia can override gubernatorial vetoes with a simple majority vote,^[10] giving governors in those states little leverage in the drawing of new district maps.

Partisan control of redistricting

Redistricting plans passed by legislature

The table shows partisan control following the 2016 elections. Partisan control in at least some states is likely to change between 2016 and the passage of redistricting plans in 2022.

State legislative redistricting methods by state.

•   Independent commission
•   Politician commission
•   Passed by legislature with gubernatorial approval
•   Passed by legislature, governor cannot veto
•   Passed by legislature, simple majority veto override

An * indicates a 2/3 super-majority vote is required
A † indicates that the state employs an advisory commission
A ‡ indicates that the state employs a backup commission

Other states

Six states use independent commissions to draw state legislative districts. In Alaska, the governor appoints two individuals and the Speaker of the House, senate president, and Chief Justice of the Alaska Supreme Court each appoint one individual to the Redistricting Board. In Arizona, Montana, and Washington, the four legislative party leaders each appoint one member to the redistricting commission, and these four individuals choose a fifth member to chair the commission. California's Citizen’s Redistricting Commission consists of five Democrats, five Republicans, and four individuals who are not members of either party. Idaho's Commission for Reapportionment consists of six individuals appointed by the chairmen of the two largest parties (based on the most recent gubernatorial vote) and the four state legislative party leaders.^[16]

Seven states use politician commissions to draw state legislative districts. Arkansas's Board of Apportionment consists of the governor, secretary of state, and attorney general. The Ohio Redistricting Commission consists of the governor, auditor, secretary of state, and four individuals appointed by the state legislative party leaders. Colorado's Reapportionment Commission consists of four appointees from the state legislative party leaders, three appointees of the governor, and four appointees of the state's chief justice. Hawaii's Reapportionment Commission consists of eight appointees of the state legislative party leaders, and these appointees select a ninth member to chair the commission. Missouri has two redistricting commissions, one for each house, and each commission consists of individuals appointed by the governor based on lists created by the two major parties. The New Jersey Apportionment Commission consists of twelve individuals appointed by the state legislative party leaders and the two major party chairmen, with these twelve individuals choosing a thirteenth member to chair the board. Pennsylvania's redistricting commission consists of four appointees chosen by the state legislative party leaders, and these four appointees choose a fifth member to chair the commission.^[16]

Redistricting organizations and funds

Democrats were particularly unhappy with the results of the 2012 House elections in which Democratic House candidates received more votes, but Republicans retained control of the chamber.^[17] Organizations such as the Democratic Governors Association and the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee have established funds dedicated to helping Democrats in the 2020 round of redistricting.^[17][18] Democrats also established the National Democratic Redistricting Committee to coordinate Democratic redistricting efforts.^[19]

Changes since 2012

In the 2013 case, Shelby County v. Holder, the Supreme Court struck down Section 4(b) of the Voting Rights Act, which was a coverage formula that determined which states and counties required preclearance from the Justice Department.^[20] The formula had covered states with a history of minority voter disenfranchisement, and the preclearance procedure was designed to block discriminatory voting practices.^[20]

In Ohio, voters approved a ballot measure changing the composition of the commission charged with drawing state legislative districts, adding two legislative appointees to the commission and creating rules and guidelines designed to make partisan gerrymandering more difficult.^[21]

See also

• Gerrymandering in the United States
• Redistricting
• Electoral geography

References