PredictIt

PredictIt

PredictIt logo
Type of site
 Prediction market
Owner Victoria University of Wellington
Slogan(s) Let's Play Politics
Website www.predictit.org
Commercial No
Registration Required for trading
Launched November 3, 2014 (2014-11-03)
Current status Operational

PredictIt is a New Zealand-based prediction market that offers prediction exchanges on political and financial events.[1] PredictIt is owned and operated by Victoria University of Wellington[2] with support from Aristotle, Inc.[3] The market was launched on November 3, 2014.[1][4] PredictIt's office is located in Washington, D.C.[4]

History

PredictIt was launched on November 3, 2014.[1] By March 26 the website had approximately 29,000 active traders.[5] During the 2016 United States elections, PredictIt, along with other prediction market websites, received attention from various media outlets.[5][6][7]

How it works

PredictIt uses a continuous double auction to sell shares for each event in its markets, meaning that for every person who predicts that an event will take place, there must be another person who predicts that it will not. The site groups related predictions into a market.[8]

Rules and limits

Victoria University of Wellington secured a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission,[9] reducing the risk of prosecution for illegal online gambling.[10] In order to secure the no-action letter, each question is limited to 5,000 traders, and there is an $850 cap on individual investments per question.[2] These restrictions are modeled after the Iowa Electronic Markets, which previously secured a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission;[10] however, there are differences in the restrictions between the two markets.[9] Federal approval aside, the site is not allowing participation from residents in 2 states with particularly strict laws on gaming and gambling: Nevada and Washington.[11]

Research

PredictIt offers a Research Data Sharing program for professors. PredictIt has over 50 university partnerships. Some universities include Harvard University, Yale University, and University of Pennsylvania.

See also

Notes

    References

    1. 1 2 3 "New prediction market tabs Jeb Bush as frontrunner for 2016 GOP nomination". SaintPetersBlog. 2014-11-03. Retrieved 2015-01-25.
    2. 1 2 "Terms And Conditions". PredictIt. Retrieved 2015-01-25.
    3. ↑ "What Is PredictIt?". PredictIt. Retrieved 2015-01-25.
    4. 1 2 Patrick O'Connor (2015-08-21). "Online Exchange Shows Jeb Bush as the GOP's 2016 Favorite". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 2015-08-24.
    5. 1 2 Jessica Contrera (2016-03-28). "Here's how to legally gamble on the 2016 race". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 2016-11-17.
    6. ↑ Andrew McGill (2016-05-11). "The People Who (Still) Bet Trump Won't Win the Nomination". The Atlantic. Retrieved 2016-11-17.
    7. ↑ Rory O'Connor (2016-02-18). "Something better than polls for political predictions? You bet!". PBS NewsHour. PBS. Retrieved 2016-11-17.
    8. ↑ "How It Works". PredictIt. Retrieved 2015-01-25.
    9. 1 2 "CFTC Staff Provides No-Action Relief for Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, to Operate a Not-For-Profit Market for Event Contracts and to Offer Event Contracts to U.S. Persons". U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. 2014-10-29. Retrieved 2015-01-25.
    10. 1 2 Katy Bachman (2014-10-31). "Meet the 'stock market' for politics". Politico. Retrieved 2015-01-25.
    11. ↑ "From which states is PI not allowing registrants?". PredictIt. 2015-09-14. Retrieved 2015-09-17.
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