Analysis paralysis

Analysis paralysis or paralysis by analysis is the state of over-analyzing (or over-thinking) a situation so that a decision or action is never taken, in effect paralyzing the outcome. A decision can be treated as over-complicated, with too many detailed options, so that a choice is never made, rather than try something and change if a major problem arises. A person might be seeking the optimal or "perfect" solution upfront, and fear making any decision which could lead to erroneous results, while on the way to a better solution.^[1]

The phrase describes a situation in which the opportunity cost of decision analysis exceeds the benefits that could be gained by enacting some decision, or an informal or non-deterministic situation where the sheer quantity of analysis overwhelms the decision-making process itself, thus preventing a decision. The phrase applies to any situation where analysis may be applied to help make a decision and may be a dysfunctional element of organizational behavior. This is often phrased as paralysis by analysis, in contrast to extinct by instinct (making a fatal decision based on hasty judgment or a gut-reaction).

History

The basic idea has been expressed through narrative a number of times. In one "Aesop's fable" that is recorded even before Aesop's time, The Fox and the Cat, the fox boasts of "hundreds of ways of escaping" while the cat has "only one". When they hear the hounds approaching, the cat scampers up a tree while "the fox in his confusion was caught up by the hounds". The fable ends with the moral, "Better one safe way than a hundred on which you cannot reckon". Related concepts are expressed by the Centipede's dilemma, how unconscious activity is disrupted by conscious thought of it, and by the tale of Buridan's ass, a paradox of rational decision with equal options.

In Shakespeare's Hamlet, the main character, Prince Hamlet, is often said to have a mortal flaw of thinking too much, such that his youth and vital energy are "sicklied o'er with the pale cast of thought".^[2] Neema Parvini explores some of Hamlet's key decisions in the chapter "‘And Reason Panders Will’: Another Look at Hamlet’s Analysis Paralysis".^[3]

Voltaire popularized an old Italian proverb in French in the 1770s of which an English variant is "Perfect is the enemy of good." The meaning of "The perfect is the enemy of the good" is that one might never complete a task if one has decided not to stop until it is perfect: completing the project well is made impossible by striving to complete it perfectly.

During World War II, Winston Churchill, after hearing that the landing craft designers were spending the majority of their time arguing over design changes, sent this message: “The maxim ‘Nothing avails but perfection’ may be spelt shorter: ‘Paralysis.’”^[4]

In 1965 H. Igor Ansoff wrote the seminal book "Corporate Strategy: An Analytic Approach to Business Policy for Growth and Expansion".^[5] He coined the phrase "paralysis by analysis" in reference to those who used the approach to excess.^[6][7]

In a paper published in 1970, based on an speech in 1969 and other works, Silver & Hecker wrote:

The Duke group has used the term "analysis-paralysis" to point out that, if we wait until we have completely answered all the questions and solved all of the problems before training the personnel we need, we will never reach a solution. The insistent demands for further study and extensive evaluation suggested by some may only be a defense by those who do not wish to change or those who fear change.^[8]

Oxford English Dictionary says the earliest usage found for "analysis paralysis"^[9] in The Times were in the 1970s.

Software development

In software development, analysis paralysis typically manifests itself through the Waterfall model with exceedingly long phases of project planning, requirements gathering, program design and data modeling, which can create little or no extra value by those steps and risk many revisions.^[10] When extended over too long a timeframe, such processes tend to emphasize the organizational (i.e., bureaucratic) aspect of the software project, while detracting from its functional (value-creating) portion.

Analysis paralysis often occurs due to the lack of experience on the part of business systems analysts, project managers or software developers, as well as a rigid and formal organizational culture.

Analysis paralysis is an example of an anti-pattern.^[11] Agile software development methodologies explicitly seek to prevent analysis paralysis by promoting an iterative work cycle that emphasizes working products over product specifications but requires buy-in from the full project team. In some instances Agile software development ends up creating additional confusion in the project in the case where iterative plans are made with no intention on having the team following through.

Sports

Analysis paralysis is a critical problem in athletics. It can be explained in simple terms as "failure to react in response to over-thought." A victim of sporting analysis paralysis will frequently think in complicated terms of "what to do next" while contemplating the variety of possibilities, and in doing so exhausts the available time in which to act.

Casual analysis paralysis

There are additional situations in which analysis paralysis can be identified, but in which the phenomenon is often accidental or coincidental.

Personal analysis

Casual analysis paralysis can occur during the process of trying to make personal decisions if the decision-maker overanalyzes the circumstance with which they are faced. When this happens, the sheer volume of analysis overwhelms the decision-maker, weighing him or her down so much that they feel overwhelmed with the task, unable to make a rational conclusion.

In some cases, the decision-maker can analyze every possible outcome of an action and write it all out, but then delete it because of how they analyze the outcome to be and how they may be viewed.

Conversational analysis

Although analysis paralysis can actually occur at any time, regarding any issue in typical conversation, it is particularly likely to occur during elevated, intellectual discussions. During such intellectual discussion, analysis paralysis involves the over-analysis of a specific issue to the point where that issue can no longer be recognized, and the subject of the conversation is lost. Usually, this happens because complex issues (which are often the basis of elevated, intellectual conversation) are intricately connected with various other issues, and the pursuit of these various issues makes logical sense to the participants. Below is an example of how analysis paralysis might affect a conversation about human rights:

1. Human rights
2. China's one child policy
3. Infanticide
4. Moral implications
5. Individualism versus the common good

All of these issues are closely related and each issue brings up yet another related one. The assumption is that, eventually, the analysis will move on so far astray that the initial issue of human rights becomes a sub-issue or is no longer even recognizable to the current topic under discussion.

Games

Games provide a microcosm for decision-making where there can be adversaries, hidden or missing information, random events, complex options, and consequences. In this context, analysis paralysis denotes a state where a player is so overwhelmed by aspects of the decision tree that he or she faces that the player's turn takes an inordinate amount of time. This can be compounded in a losing position where the player is exhaustively searching for a win or purposely stalling to prevent officially losing the game. The connotation is often pejorative, implying that the slowing of the game diminished the enjoyment by other players.^[12] Some games explicitly add time deadlines (e.g. with a chess clock or egg timer). In chess this slowing of play is referred to as Kotov Syndrome and, in timed chess matches, can result in time trouble. Good game design can reduce the likelihood of analysis paralysis in gameplay.^[13] Game design itself can also be susceptible to analysis paralysis.^[14]

Preventing and overcoming

There are many ways to help prevent or overcome the logjam of analysis paralysis. There may be many factors contributing to the cause. Lon Roberts breaks down the common definition of "analysis paralysis" into three possibly overlapping conditions of paralysis: analysis process, decision precision, and risk uncertainty.^[4] He uses this to give specific actions for each condition. Becky Kane^[15] and others give these following suggestions:

Set limits

Set initial constraints (deadline, time, people, money, resources,...) to what your are willing to commit for this plan. Setting deadlines: "Set a 'drop dead' date."^[1] "Set a deadline and hold yourself accountable."^[15] Limit the amount of info: "Curb your curiosity."^[1] "Intentionally limit the amount of information you consume."^[15]

Clarify objectives and priorities

Having a clear goal can simplify your decisions and actions for any project. "Know your main objective."^[15]

Remember nothing is perfect

"Recognize that the moons will never align."^[1]

Take small iterative steps

Agile development and design thinking are two recent movements emphasizing small iterations to discover the problem space. "Approach problems with an iterative mindset."^[15] Decide something: "Stair step your decisions."^[1] Resorting to Flipism, at least to reveal your preference, can resolve seeming equal choices. Do something: "Start before you feel ready."^[15]

Change number of options

Increasing the number of options in the beginning increase the likelihood for a good solution. Decreasing the number of options later simplifies the decision process (Paradox of choice).

Add or remove emotion

Decision making works best with a mix of rational, intuitive and emotional thinking.^[16]

Talk about it

Talking with someone can get another viewpoint. This can also help reduce groupthink. "Get a sanity check."^[1] "Get out of your own head and talk it out with someone else."^[15] It doesn't even have to be a person (see Rubber duck debugging).

Make your best decision

Decision fatigue can affect or even prevent good decision making. "Structure your day for the decisions that matter most."^[15] When you do make your decision, support it. "Make your decision the right one."^[15]

Adages

• "Better one safe way than a hundred on which you cannot reckon." Aesop's The Fox and the Cat
• "The perfect is the enemy of the good." — Voltaire
• "The maxim ‘Nothing avails but perfection’ may be spelt shorter: ‘Paralysis.’" — Winston Churchill
• "Give them the third best to go on with; the second best comes too late, the best never comes" — Robert Watson-Watt
• "Better a good decision quickly than the best decision too late." — Harold Geneen

See also

• Bounded rationality
• Buyer's remorse
• Criticism
• Decision fatigue
• Existential crisis
• Groupthink
• Information overload
• Obsessive–compulsive personality disorder
• Opportunity cost
• The Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less
• Perfect is the enemy of good
• Perfectionism
• Regret (decision theory)
• Secretary problem
• Wicked problem
• Writer's block

References