Mackerras federal election pendulum, 2006

The Mackerras federal election pendulum, 2006 (by Malcolm Mackerras) shows the state of the major political parties ahead of the 2007 Australian federal election. The table shows seats in the Australian House of Representatives arranged in the form of a Mackerras Pendulum based on their 2004 federal election two-party preferred result. Some seats in New South Wales and Queensland underwent a redistribution in 2006, their margins have been recalculated due to this.

MPs shown in italics are not contesting the 2007 election. Gwydir, held by John Anderson for the Nationals, was abolished in the last redistribution and is not shown. Notionally government-held seats are shown on the left, with other seats shown on the right.

Very safe seats

Seat MP Party Margin Seat MP Party Margin
Mallee, Vic John Forrest National 24.8%
Murray, Vic Sharman Stone Liberal 24.1%
Maranoa, Qld Bruce Scott National 21.0%
Mitchell, NSW Alan Cadman Liberal 20.7% Grayndler, NSW Anthony Albanese Labor 21.3%
Riverina, NSW Kay Hull National 20.7% Batman, Vic Martin Ferguson Labor 21.3%
O'Connor, WA Wilson Tuckey Liberal 20.4% Melbourne, Vic Lindsay Tanner Labor 21.1%

Safe seats

Seat MP Party Margin Seat MP Party Margin
Barker, SA Patrick Secker Liberal 19.9%
Moncrieff, Qld Steve Ciobo Liberal 19.9%
Groom, Qld Ian Macfarlane Liberal 19.0%
Parkes, NSW John Cobb National 18.8%
Bradfield, NSW Brendan Nelson Liberal 17.5%
Indi, Vic Sophie Mirabella Liberal 16.3%
Mackellar, NSW Bronwyn Bishop Liberal 15.5%
Farrer, NSW Sussan Ley Liberal 15.4%
Fadden, Qld David Jull Liberal 15.3%
Curtin, WA Julie Bishop Liberal 14.6%
Lyne, NSW Mark Vaile National 14.1%
McPherson, Qld Margaret May Liberal 14.0%
Grey, SA Barry Wakelin Liberal 13.8%
Cook, NSW Bruce Baird Liberal 13.7%
Mayo, SA Alexander Downer Liberal 13.6%
Fairfax, Qld Alex Somlyay Liberal 13.3%
Aston, Vic Chris Pearce Liberal 13.2%
Fisher, Qld Peter Slipper Liberal 13.0%
Forde, Qld Kay Elson Liberal 13.0%
Hume, NSW Alby Schultz Liberal 12.9%
Pearce, WA Judith Moylan Liberal 12.9%
Wannon, Vic David Hawker Liberal 12.4% Sydney NSW Tanya Plibersek Labor 17.3%
Wide Bay, Qld Warren Truss National 12.2% Wills, Vic Kelvin Thomson Labor 16.9%
Berowra, NSW Philip Ruddock Liberal 12.2% Blaxland, NSW Michael Hatton Labor 15.3%
Tangney, WA Dennis Jensen Liberal 11.8% Gellibrand, Vic Nicola Roxon Labor 15.0%
Casey, Vic Tony Smith Liberal 11.4% Gorton, Vic Brendan O'Connor Labor 14.9%
Warringah, NSW Tony Abbott Liberal 11.3% Scullin, Vic Harry Jenkins Labor 14.8%
Flinders, Vic Greg Hunt Liberal 11.1% Watson, NSW Tony Burke Labor 14.6%
Macarthur, NSW Patrick Farmer Liberal 11.1% New England, NSW[1] Tony Windsor Independent 14.2%
Greenway, NSW Louise Markus Liberal 11.0% Throsby, NSW Jennie George Labor 13.9%
Moore, WA Mal Washer Liberal 10.8% Fowler, NSW Julia Irwin Labor 13.5%
Menzies, Vic Kevin Andrews Liberal 10.7% Fraser, ACT Bob McMullan Labor 13.3%
Forrest, WA Geoff Prosser Liberal 10.5% Denison, Tas Duncan Kerr Labor 13.3%
Kennedy, Qld[2] Bob Katter Independent 10.5% Port Adelaide, SA Rod Sawford Labor 12.9%
Ryan, Qld Michael Johnson Liberal 10.4% Chifley, NSW Roger Price Labor 12.1%
Leichhardt, Qld Warren Entsch Liberal 10.3% Reid, NSW Laurie Ferguson Labor 12.0%
Dawson, Qld De-Anne Kelly National 10.2% Cunningham, NSW Sharon Bird Labor 11.7%
North Sydney, NSW Joe Hockey Liberal 10.0% Hunter, NSW Joel Fitzgibbon Labor 11.2%

Fairly safe seats

Seat MP Party Margin Seat MP Party Margin
Goldstein, Vic Andrew Robb Liberal 10.0%
Kooyong, Vic Petro Georgiou Liberal 9.8%
Gilmore, NSW Joanna Gash Liberal 9.5% Canberra, ACT Annette Ellis Labor 9.6%
Canning, WA Don Randall Liberal 9.5% Maribyrnong, Vic Bob Sercombe Labor 9.5%
Dunkley, Vic Bruce Billson Liberal 9.4% Shortland, NSW Jill Hall Labor 9.3%
Dickson, Qld Peter Dutton Liberal 9.1% Lalor, Vic Julia Gillard Labor 8.8%
Bowman, Qld Andrew Laming Liberal 8.9% Newcastle, NSW Sharon Grierson Labor 8.7%
Hughes, NSW Danna Vale Liberal 8.8% Kingsford Smith, NSW Peter Garrett Labor 8.6%
Hinkler, Qld Paul Neville National 8.8% Griffith, Qld Kevin Rudd Labor 8.5%
Higgins, Vic Peter Costello Liberal 8.8% Charlton, NSW Kelly Hoare Labor 8.4%
Petrie, Qld Teresa Gambaro Liberal 7.9% Calwell, Vic Maria Vamvakinou Labor 8.2%
Flynn, Qld[3] new seat National 7.9% Calare, NSW[4] Peter Andren Independent 7.9%
Gippsland, Vic Peter McGauran National 7.7% Fremantle, WA Carmen Lawrence Labor 7.8%
Robertson, NSW Jim Lloyd Liberal 6.9% Lingiari, NT Warren Snowdon Labor 7.7%
Paterson, NSW Bob Baldwin Liberal 6.8% Franklin, Tas Harry Quick Labor 7.6%
Sturt, SA Christopher Pyne Liberal 6.8% Barton, NSW Robert McClelland Labor 7.6%
Longman, Qld Mal Brough Liberal 6.6% Hotham, Vic Simon Crean Labor 7.4%
Cowper, NSW Luke Hartsuyker National 6.6% Oxley, QLD Bernie Ripoll Labor 7.2%
McEwen, Vic Fran Bailey Liberal 6.4% Werriwa, NSW Chris Hayes[5] Labor 7.1%
Kalgoorlie, WA Barry Haase Liberal 6.3% Prospect, NSW Chris Bowen Labor 6.9%
Herbert, Qld Peter Lindsay Liberal 6.1% Perth, WA Stephen Smith Labor 6.7%

Marginal seats

Seat MP Party Margin Seat MP Party Margin
La Trobe, Vic Jason Wood Liberal 5.8% Corio, Vic Gavan O'Connor Labor 5.6%
Blair, Qld Cameron Thompson Liberal 5.7% Lilley, Qld Wayne Swan Labor 5.4%
Page, NSW Ian Causley National 5.5% Brand, WA Kim Beazley Labor 4.7%
Boothby, SA Andrew Southcott Liberal 5.4% Jagajaga, Vic Jenny Macklin Labor 4.4%
Corangamite, Vic Stewart McArthur Liberal 5.3% Brisbane, Qld Arch Bevis Labor 4.0%
McMillan, Vic Russell Broadbent Liberal 5.0% Capricornia, Qld Kirsten Livermore Labor 3.8%
Deakin, Vic Phillip Barresi Liberal 5.0% Melbourne Ports, Vic Michael Danby Labor 3.7%
Dobell, NSW Ken Ticehurst Liberal 4.8% Lyons, Tas Dick Adams Labor 3.7%
Bennelong, NSW John Howard Liberal 4.0% Bruce, Vic Alan Griffin Labor 3.5%
Eden-Monaro, NSW Gary Nairn Liberal 3.3% Banks, NSW Daryl Melham Labor 3.3%
Lindsay, NSW Jackie Kelly Liberal 2.9% Rankin, Qld Craig Emerson Labor 3.0%
Moreton, Qld Gary Hardgrave Liberal 2.8% Lowe, NSW John Murphy Labor 3.1%
Solomon, NT Dave Tollner CLP 2.8% Chisholm, Vic Anna Burke Labor 2.7%
Bass, Tas Michael Ferguson Liberal 2.6% Ballarat, Vic Catherine King Labor 2.2%
Wentworth, NSW Malcolm Turnbull Liberal 2.6% Holt, Vic Anthony Byrne Labor 1.5%
Stirling, WA Michael Keenan Liberal 2.0% Isaacs, Vic Ann Corcoran Labor 1.5%
Hasluck, WA Stuart Henry Liberal 1.8% Richmond, NSW Justine Elliot Labor 1.5%
Parramatta, NSW[6] Julie Owens Labor -1.1% Adelaide, SA Kate Ellis Labor 1.3%
Braddon, Tas Mark Baker Liberal 1.1% Bendigo, Vic Steve Gibbons Labor 1.0%
Makin, SA Trish Draper Liberal 0.9% Cowan, WA Graham Edwards Labor 0.8%
Wakefield, SA David Fawcett Liberal 0.7% Macquarie, NSW[7] Kerry Bartlett Liberal -0.5%
Bonner, Qld Ross Vasta Liberal 0.6% Swan, WA Kim Wilkie Labor 0.1%
Kingston, SA Kym Richardson Liberal 0.1% Hindmarsh, SA Steve Georganas Labor 0.1%

Notes

  1. ↑ Two-candidate preferred margin against National Party candidate shown
  2. ↑ Two-candidate preferred margin against Australian Labor Party candidate shown
  3. ↑ Seat is notionally National.
  4. ↑ Two-candidate preferred margin against Liberal Party candidate shown
  5. ↑ Labor's Mark Latham resigned on 18 January 2005; Hayes won the resulting by-election on 19 March.
  6. ↑ After redistribution, seat is notionally Liberal.
  7. ↑ After redistribution, seat is notionally Labor.

References

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