Demographic crisis of Russia

Demographic crisis in Russia relates to demographic problems of the Russian Federation. The crisis began to unfold in the beginning of the 1990s.

Aftermath

In the economic sphere

Demographic crisis has a positive economic effect on the second stage of the changing age structure of the population (the fraction of the average working-age generation is maximal at a relatively small proportion of younger and older) and a negative economic effect on the third stage of the changing age structure of the population (when the proportion of the older generation is maximal at a relatively small share younger and middle generation). By 2025, Russia will have labor shortages.

By reducing fertility load on the working population increases, because each worker has more retirees. [79] The farther gone country's demographic crisis, the less able-bodied population and the harder contain additional dependents (pensioners).

The rapid rise in the birth rate in a short period of time difficult to implement due to economic reasons: sharply increased social spending on the old generation, which in the future will only bring troubles.

In education

The number of high school graduates has steadily decreased, so universities have to fight for each applicant. Due to the demographic crisis discussing sharply (from 1115 to 200) reduction in the number of universities in the country (according to the forecast, in 2012, the school will complete a total of 700 people).

In coming years, plans to lay off 100,000 teachers (one in four) in connection with the future decrease in the number of students per one million each year. By 2015, the reduction of the teaching staff will be 20-50%.

The number of university students in 2013 will amount to 4.2 million, a decrease of more than 40% in relation to the number of students in 2009 (7.4 million).

According to Education Minister Andrei Fursenko demographic crisis will help get rid of the high schools that provide poor education.

In the field of defense

One of the demographic crisis consequences is reducing mobilization potential for the country's armed forces. Demographic crisis affects the nature of the military reform, forcing the military to reduce their numbers, cancel deferred from military service, and eventually move to contract manning. As of 2009 the potential mobilization reserve was 31 million (for comparison, in the United States - 56 million, China - 208 million). In 2010, the organized mobilization reserve was 20 million people. In the most likely scenario the number of 18-year-olds (current mobilization reserve) in 2050 will be reduced by 4 times and will be 328 thousand people.

Low population density in the Russian Far East increases the risk of the outbreak of a low intensity military conflict with China.

In the social sphere

Tf. Mr. Professor Antonov AI notes, that the world has tended to strengthen the organization of life without family, to a convenient and unobtrusive solitary bachelor existence, the Stockholm model. And, as a consequence, the number of children in families, which, in turn, leads to a sharp change in the whole system of life, value systems, the weakening of fatherhood and motherhood, unity of parents and children, the disappearance of the roles of brother and sister, disrupt kinship systems.

Demographic aging of the population

Russia at the end of the 19th century was a country with a young population: the number of children significantly exceeded the number of the elderly. Up to 1938, the population of the Soviet Union remained "demographically young", but later, since 1959, began its demographic aging: the proportion of young age began to decline, and the elderly - to increase, which was the result of lower fertility. In 1990, Russia ranked 25th in the list of countries with high rates of population aging. Currently, the share of people aged 65 and older in the population of Russia is 13%. According to forecasts of the Russian Academy of Sciences [citation needed 400 days], in 2016 elderly people aged over 60 will account for 20% of Russians, and children up to 15 years - only 17%. In Russia, in contrast to other countries depopulated, aging is constrained by high mortality among older people.

Threats

A number of researchers believe that the depopulation affected the Russian people to a greater extent than other peoples living in Russia. According to Rybakovskii, the real (and not the census) number of Russians for the period from 1989 to 2002 decreased by 7%, while the overall country population - only by 1.3%. According to Beloborodov, by the year 2025 85-90% of the population decline in Russia will be due to Russians and in the course of the next 20 years the percentage of Russians as a rough estimate will drop to about 60 to 70%. He predicts also that in 2050, the proportion of Russians in Russia will amount to 46.5%. Some researchers, considering the reduction of the indigenous population as a result of the demographic crisis, given accompanying high immigration (in the case of lack of assimilation of migrants), have made very alarming forecasts. As one of the likely consequences of the demographic crisis some researchers point to a deep change in the future ethno-religious composition of the population (with a share of more than 20% of migrants appear closed ethnic groups, assimilation difficult and exacerbated ethnic conflicts). By 2030, one in five people of Russia will practice Islam. A graphic example of ethnic aspect of the demographic crisis: now a third of all the births in Moscow accounts for migrants, which would change the ethnic and religious composition of the population of Moscow in the nearest future. Reduction of the indigenous population by increasing the share of migrants in the opinion of some researchers may lead to future loss of the territorial integrity of Russia. Chances are that the first territorial losses will be in Siberia and Russian Far East. This is due both to the depopulation of these lands because of low birth rates and internal migration to the European part of Russia, and to the demographic pressure from Asian countries (especially China). For the first time in the history of Russian Siberia its population is steadily declining. According to Antonov, the Russian population in the 75-65 million will trigger the country's disintegration and separation of national autonomies.

See also

References

    Literature

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